[nivi]

free or with subscription
i mean for predicting football scores



i think this one is dope
https://annabet.com/en/poissoned/


what do you guys think?

[Optional]

SBR's https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...on-calculator/

[nivi]

SBR's https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...on-calculator/

i dont even understand this shit

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nivi, I think the key takeaway is that Poisson takes a Mean and fits it to a distribution. Poisson is a discrete distribution, meaning that the output is only whole numbers. Poisson has some application to left-truncated distributions, which often fits Goal output that can't go below Zero.

[MadTiger]

i dont even understand this shit

How about this:

The line for the total is thirty-six. You think the total will be thirty-five (UNDER). If I put these numbers into the calculator, you get 41.1497% chance your under hits.

Odds of	Percentage	Money Line
Exactly 35	6.6337%	+1,407.46
More Than 35	52.2167%	-109.28
Less Than 35	41.1497%	+143.02
At Least 35	58.8503%	-143.02
At Most 35	47.7833%	+109.28

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nivi, I agree that the link was a bit confusing. See Tiger's post above (#5). That's a bit more logical.

Poisson will spit out an estimated distribution. Understand a few things about Poisson distribution:

1) It's a DISCRETE distribution.
2) Therefore, it should work well on output that comes one at a time. IE, goals, hits, strikeouts, etc...

Poisson will NOT work well on stats that come in chunks. IE, yards or points in a football game. Yards can come by 2/12/52ets, points accumulate by 3/6etc.

Re: the original link u posted, I think it's trying to model a soccer game. So, if u input the Mean # of goals and add the Home/Draw/Road split, the generator is trying to calculate all potential outcomes on Side/Margin/Total etc.

[nivi]

How about this:

The line for the total is thirty-six. You think the total will be thirty-five (UNDER). If I put these numbers into the calculator, you get 41.1497% chance your under hits.

Odds of	Percentage	Money Line
Exactly 35	6.6337%	+1,407.46
More Than 35	52.2167%	-109.28
Less Than 35	41.1497%	+143.02
At Least 35	58.8503%	-143.02
At Most 35	47.7833%	+109.28

how can i use it for soccer?

[Optional]

i dont even understand this shit

Click the links underneath to display help/tips

[nivi]

Click the links underneath to display help/tips

cant find it

[nivi]

Nivi, I agree that the link was a bit confusing. See Tiger's post above (#5). That's a bit more logical.

Poisson will spit out an estimated distribution. Understand a few things about Poisson distribution:

1) It's a DISCRETE distribution.
2) Therefore, it should work well on output that comes one at a time. IE, goals, hits, strikeouts, etc...

Poisson will NOT work well on stats that come in chunks. IE, yards or points in a football game. Yards can come by 2/12/52ets, points accumulate by 3/6etc.

Re: the original link u posted, I think it's trying to model a soccer game. So, if u input the Mean # of goals and add the Home/Draw/Road split, the generator is trying to calculate all potential outcomes on Side/Margin/Total etc.

oh this is it then
i use it only for soccer
thats why it doesnt make sense to me

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Better off just using base R, eg for the example above .....

ppois(35,lambda=36,lower=TRUE):
0.47783

[eaglesfan371]

Better off just using base R, eg for the example above .....

ppois(35,lambda=36,lower=TRUE):
0.47783

You seem like the sharpest poster on SBR.

Do you know of a book or better yet, a basic model available online that you would recommend for somewhere to start? I have always recreationally bet but am curious to look into modeling sports. Just feel it would be overwhelming accounting for so many variables to do as a side hobby.

I have very strong excel abilities and have a good amount of project finance experience that involved daily modeling so I want to give it a try. You use a lot of statistical terms I am also unfamiliar with.