1. #1
    Gaze73
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    Does trend betting work?

    On one hand it shouldn't work because that would be too easy. I assume that trends are simply calculated into the line. On the other hand, some trends look really strong and there are no mixed signals, so how could you lose money following them? Let's use NBA for example. Bucks are 17-3 ATS after coming off a loss. Would you have bet against Bucks yesterday knowing that? They won by 10. Maybe the coach gives them a good pep talk after a loss or something. There must be some reason for that because winning 17/20 coinflips seems unlikely.

    Let's examine some trends coming up today:

    Game 1:
    The Rockets are 22-43-5 OU (-5.66 ppg) since Jan 03, 2018 on the road
    The Rockets are 1-10-1 OU (-10.33 ppg) since Mar 08, 2019 as a favorite
    Houston Rockets vs Western (Under) 27-20-1
    Sacramento Kings as Home (Under) 22-15-1

    Game 2:
    The Nuggets are 4-18 OU (-9.30 ppg) since Feb 08, 2019
    The Nuggets are 5-14 OU (-5.03 ppg) since Jan 08, 2019 on the road
    Denver Nuggets vs Western (Under) 28-18-0
    The Warriors are 4-13-1 OU (-3.33 ppg) since Feb 23, 2019
    The Warriors are 1-7 OU (-3.44 ppg) since Feb 23, 2019 as a home favorite


    Knowing that, will anyone here bet on the overs? Good luck, but I'll have a punt on the unders. Is there any value though? I have no idea, I've never done trend betting. But surely there must be at least 1% edge, the plays are so obvious.
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  2. #2
    AsianmanSports
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    Only way to find out would be define what constitutes a " Trend " and then analyze instance of them in the Past to get an answer.

    Theoreticlly the numbers you mention should have no impact on the next Game.

    Another assumption would be that Lines have adjusted for those perfomances ( perhaps overly adjusted ) and the numbers will eventually regress to the mean.

    If that were true then u have a problem deciding when does a trend start and stop.

    The Rockets are 22-43-5 OU (-5.66 ppg) since Jan 03, 2018 on the road
    What if they go over on their next 10 Roadgames. Is the Trend then 0-10 for the under or 33-43-5 ?

  3. #3
    BigdaddyQH
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    Angles and Trends are part of a good overall wagering strategy, but only part. You should incorporate them in your strategy, but they should should not be the ONLY strategy that you use. You must also consider team vs team records, injuries, players returning from injury, and other factors. Also remember the most important thing. Listen to what your gut tells you to do. If you don't "have it", you will never succeed overall in this business. Remember, not losing is just as important as winning. The ONLY way to play a game "not to lose" is to not play it at all. It does you no good to win 20 games and lose 20 games. The vig nails you in the end.

  4. #4
    Gaze73
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    I would actually prefer the trends to be pointless, then I wouldn't have to waste time with them. But I do have some experience with odds-based trends and those often work very well. E.g. halfway through the season in soccer league X I noticed that home favs in the 1.8-2.2 range win a hell of a lot of games, and that when they are priced at 2.3-2.6 there are suddenly a lot of draws. And guess what, those trends continued well until the end of the season.

  5. #5
    danshan11
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    yeah dude play the shit out of them, they are free money use full kelly based on the win% of the trend!

  6. #6
    AsianmanSports
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    I think you need to have an angle or a theory first and if you then discover a trend that supports your theory you have a more solid foundation for your assumption.

    If youre looking for " Trends " you can use any database and control for any number of random variables to come up with something but does that make sense? Not really I would say. And again when do Trends start and stop? When is it too early or too late to go with a trend? When does a trend reverse?
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  7. #7
    danshan11
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    say you had a box of crayons that are 2 colors and there was 100 crayons in the box 50 blue and 50 black now pour out randomly 20 of them and see how many trends you can believe happened, sometimes 20 black and sometimes 20 blue. if you take out 1 at a time sometimes you will get 15-20 blue or black in a row! its amazing and you can make big money on these predictable and meaningful trends.

    like it or not a -105 -105 game closing line is a coin flip, there is no data to say any different. the only exception to this is the model that someone has that can actually be more predictive than the closing line.

  8. #8
    BigdaddyQH
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    I specialize in American Football only. Anyone who thinks he/she can master all sports is a loser. I would not know about soccer. There is one thing that I have noticed about players. A player should be able to wager on a sport that he knows little about, and win at least 47% of the time. You must have that type of gaming sense, or you will not succeed. My knowledge of baseball is limited to what I read on a daily basis about the teams. I do not keep records of any kind. I still find it rather easy to win around 50% of my wagers on games. That means that I would probably lose overall, because of the vig, but I still have enough gaming sense to play a particular game if I took the time to look for a specific set of events leading up to a specific game. Baseball bores me. The seasons and the games are too long. But it is fun to throw the occasional wager in.

  9. #9
    Barrakuda
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    "There must be some reason for that because winning 17/20 coinflips seems unlikely."

    This is perhaps the largest and most dangerous fallacy in all of handicapping. If you looked at a single set of 20 random coinflips and 17 won, you may have something. But you're not doing that by datamining for a trend. You're implicitly sifting through hundreds of sets of 20 flips until you find a few outliers. These outliers will always exist and they will almost always have no predictive value.
    Last edited by Barrakuda; 04-02-19 at 01:23 PM.
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  10. #10
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    yeah dude play the shit out of them, they are free money use full kelly based on the win% of the trend!

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  11. #11
    KVB
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    The trend can be helpful if you understand how to incorporate it into the line or can identify that is being incorporated into the line.

    You have to be able to create your own line or forecast no matter what.

    Often times, if the market hasn't reacted to a developing public "trend" then it will suddenly, in high volume events, actually producing value on the other side of the trend.

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  12. #12
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post

    right? LMAO

  13. #13
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    There must be some reason for that because winning 17/20 coinflips seems unlikely.
    One could argue, because they are coinflips and the end result will return to the 50/50 that you are long due for some wins on the other side, so I'd bet against the Bucks from now on. Ask any good roulette player, the odds of hitting red are simply huge after black has come up 17 times in a row!!


  14. #14
    Gaze73
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    You guys are falsely assuming that every trend must be due to 100% luck. It couldn't possibly be that each team is unique in its own way and plays a certain way in certain matchups.

  15. #15
    BeatTheJerk
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    Quote Originally Posted by AsianmanSports View Post
    Only way to find out would be define what constitutes a " Trend " and then analyze instance of them in the Past to get an answer.

    Theoreticlly the numbers you mention should have no impact on the next Game.

    Another assumption would be that Lines have adjusted for those perfomances ( perhaps overly adjusted ) and the numbers will eventually regress to the mean.

    If that were true then u have a problem deciding when does a trend start and stop.



    What if they go over on their next 10 Roadgames. Is the Trend then 0-10 for the under or 33-43-5 ?
    Trends & Momentum go along very well "at times". I would disagree with the abnormally large brain Asian man.

  16. #16
    Gaze73
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    There's also good 24-12 ATS trend for Sacramento at home so today's plays are:

    Sacramento +5.5
    Sacramento U226
    GSW - Denver U220.5

    I bet 2 out of 3 will win.

    And I'll throw in a bonus NHL play on Tampa +105 (Tampa Bay Lightning vs Eastern (ML) 42-7-0)

  17. #17
    BeatTheJerk
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    TB @ plus money feels real baity. I just can't ..... Often times lines can seem way too easy & I usually go the other way or just not play them & a high % of the time it's worked out for me personally.

  18. #18
    Getch13
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk View Post
    TB @ plus money feels real baity. I just can't ..... Often times lines can seem way too easy & I usually go the other way or just not play them & a high % of the time it's worked out for me personally.
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    As the Montreal Canadiens attempt to chase down an Eastern Conference wild-card spot, they would be happy if Tuesday's game against the visiting Tampa Bay Lightning ends up being a playoff preview.Montreal (42-29-8, 92 points) enters Tuesday just a single point behind the Carolina Hurricanes for the final wild-card position, and two points back of Columbus for the top wild-card slot. All three have just three games remaining on the schedule, promising an exciting conclusion to the stretch run.The Canadiens have done their best to make it a photo finish, posting a 5-1-1 record over their last seven games. The record includes a 3-1 victory over the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday, as Montreal outshot one of the Western Conference's top teams by a dominant 44-24 margin."It could have been one of our better games all season," goaltender Carey Price told reporters after Saturday's game. "I thought right from the start of the game that we seemed to be firing on all cylinders and playing well. Everybody contributed tonight."Price made 23 saves against the Jets to deliver yet another strong performance amidst what has become an iron-man stretch of goaltending. Price has played in 26 of Montreal's last 27 games (25 as a starter) and he'll surely be called upon once more against league-leading Tampa Bay.The situation in net for the Lightning is less settled, as rookie Eddie Pasquale may be in line to make his second career NHL start. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 22 saves in Tampa Bay's 5-2 win over Ottawa on Monday, and since Vasilevskiy isn't likely to start on consecutive nights with the postseason looming, Pasquale will probably get the nod against Montreal.Pasquale was called up from the AHL on Monday when backup goalie Louis Domingue was scratched with a lower-body injury.With a first-place seed long clinched, the Lightning (60-15-4, 124 points) enter their final three games simply trying to get in top form for the playoffs. While star defenseman Victor Hedman (upper-body injury) likely won't play again until the postseason, Tampa Bay could get some reinforcements on the blue line if Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi can return from lower-body injuries."Stralman's going to this (road) trip, and hopefully we'll have a Girardi sighting at some point, maybe at the tail end," Lightning coach Jon Cooper told reporters. "Guys are progressing. Our goal is to have everybody back by whatever day Game One is, and we're taking the steps to make sure that happens."Stralman has missed 13 of the Lightning's last 14 games, while Girardi has missed Tampa Bay's last 11 contests.While the Lightning are looking ahead to their pursuit of the Stanley Cup, they can also do further damage to the regular-season record book. Tampa Bay can still match or surpass the 1995-96 Red Wings' league record of 62 wins. Three more victories would also give the Lightning 130 points, the third-highest single-season points total in NHL history.The Lightning have won all three meetings with the Canadiens this season. Montreal is 1-5-2 in its last eight games against Tampa Bay.--Field Level Media

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  19. #19
    Okocha
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    You guys are no different than the crazy guy at the casino with a notebook taking notes of the recent numbers in the roulette wheel and trying to devise a scheme to exploit a leak/loophole based on a random pattern

  20. #20
    TommieGunshot
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    How many different possible trends are there? It seems like it's endless. For example, the Blazers since March 3, the Yankees coming off a home loss, the Bruins as home favorites, UCLA as an underdog after a double digit loss.

    With completely random results, there is a 1 in 40 chance that the Warriors would have four or fewer overs in their last 17 decisions against the total. But there are almost 2,000 times every year that a team has a 17 game streak with a chance to 4-13 or worse. With completely random results, we would expect to see something like that nearly 50 times every year during the NBA season. But there are also over 1000 streaks of 22 games. So what evidence is there that this streak is something other than complete randomness?
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  21. #21
    pretentiousGuy
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    No.

  22. #22
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    There's also good 24-12 ATS trend for Sacramento at home so today's plays are:

    Sacramento +5.5
    Sacramento U226
    GSW - Denver U220.5

    I bet 2 out of 3 will win.

    And I'll throw in a bonus NHL play on Tampa +105 (Tampa Bay Lightning vs Eastern (ML) 42-7-0)
    25%. That went very well.

    Any streak or trend like this is completely random. Take a database of 1 million sports results and you will find thousands of these trends and patterns. They are 100% random noise. Seriously, do 1000 coin flips and see how many streaks of 10+ heads you come up with. Does that increase the chance of the next flip being heads as well?

  23. #23
    Gaze73
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    GSW under hit, the trends work!

  24. #24
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk View Post
    TB @ plus money feels real baity. I just can't ..... Often times lines can seem way too easy & I usually go the other way or just not play them & a high % of the time it's worked out for me personally.
    Yeah, upon closer inspeciton the trend is now 2-2 at plus odds(2-1 yesterday).

  25. #25
    tsty
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    Are you up lifetime?

  26. #26
    AsianmanSports
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    How many different possible trends are there? It seems like it's endless.
    This , you can justify anything if you want after youve adjusted enough random parameters to come up with something.


    GSW under hit, the trends work!
    Nice sample

  27. #27
    BeatTheJerk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    Yeah, upon closer inspeciton the trend is now 2-2 at plus odds(2-1 yesterday).
    I knew it, it was fukin’ Bait. I should’ve faded it.

  28. #28
    Believe_EMT
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    this qualifies for HTT how exactly?

    move this thread

    does this reflect the level of talent available here at SBR?

  29. #29
    AsianmanSports
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    Quote Originally Posted by Believe_EMT View Post
    does this reflect the level of talent available here at SBR?
    Yes it does

  30. #30
    slapshot
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    all trends are not equal.
    for example....from tonights nhl games

    Flames are 1-31 in the last 32 meetings in Anaheim.

    with that being said flames have probably not been -167 in any of the previous 32 meetings.

  31. #31
    BeatTheJerk
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    Quote Originally Posted by AsianmanSports View Post
    Yes it does
    Is sports wagering your main source of income or just a side job ?

  32. #32
    gojetsgomoxies
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    not sure why certain people are highly dismissive.

    there are billionaires out there that largely made it off trend-investing in the stock and commodity markets. and that market in theory would be more efficient than betting market (far lower transaction costs in financial markets though.. EDIT: and much much greater opportunities to bet mega-$$$$ in financial markets)

    of course, there are major structural differences between betting and financial markets too.......... i think "maybe" trends are overpriced in betting markets. whereas they are (or were historically) underpriced (under-invested might be better expression) in financial markets.

    i think to test that the trends should be very simple, like ATS streaks or some cumulative "points above/below ATS" figure.. saying justin verlander is high ROI in night games away from houston. i know how to test that historically but i don't know how to test it in any real economic sense.

  33. #33
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by slapshot View Post
    all trends are not equal.
    for example....from tonights nhl games

    Flames are 1-31 in the last 32 meetings in Anaheim.

    with that being said flames have probably not been -167 in any of the previous 32 meetings.
    Anaheim is a great play tonite. The Flames are in "do not get anyone hurt" mode and should not take any unnecessary risks. Duck players are fighting fir jobs next season.

  34. #34
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    The problem here is that these trends are fairly simple, and thus of the sort machine learning setups will spot easily - in many cases completely automatically. Thus, the market has already priced them in, and almost certainly done so more accurately than you can.


    Sure, if you had a meaningful trend based on non-public data, and weighted it appropriately......

  35. #35
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Anaheim is a great play tonite. The Flames are in "do not get anyone hurt" mode and should not take any unnecessary risks. Duck players are fighting fir jobs next season.
    The Flames are now 1-33 in Anaheim. Now that was not difficult, was it? Shame on you if you did not take advantage of this. This is how the 5% of gamblers who are successful on a regular basis make their money. Take advantage of an obvious situation backed by a solid trend.

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