1. #1
    Frank Mills
    Frank Mills's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-26-18
    Posts: 1,244

    Just trying to learn

    Okay,

    Let's say we have the Golden State Warriors vs the Chicago Bulls and the line is

    Warriors -12 with a Money Line of -670 and let's say +540 for the Bulls.


    Is there a way to figure out the actual mathematical estimated chance of the

    Warriors winning straight up or vice versa ( The Bulls )


    Thanks guys !

  2. #2
    leetreaper
    leetreaper's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-23-10
    Posts: 32,031
    Betpoints: 60


  3. #3
    Miz
    Miz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-30-09
    Posts: 558
    Betpoints: 794

    Hi Frank, The last link should help with the immediate answer.... but the first step is to calculate the fair-line (no vig). Check the second post at the first link below. Good luck

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...-line-mls.html

    http://sportsbettingsites.org/bettin...ig-calculator/

  4. #4
    Barrakuda
    Here we go again
    Barrakuda's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-28-18
    Posts: 364
    Betpoints: 2874

    You don't know the answer to this, and yet you are selling picks on PickMonitor?

    https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/FrankMillsPlus3

    Ugh.

  5. #5
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 4,101
    Betpoints: 2887

    dont trust no vig calculators on big faves or dogs, VIG is not split equally, look up fave longshot bias

  6. #6
    Miz
    Miz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-30-09
    Posts: 558
    Betpoints: 794

    hi Danshan, fav/longshot bias is a separate topic all together. The calculator above looks to handle the calculation correctly, although I didn't manually check it... looks close though -556

  7. #7
    Frank Mills
    Frank Mills's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-26-18
    Posts: 1,244

    Thank you Miz. That calculator does not seem to be working. Would you check it out and see if it will work for you? Thank you.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miz View Post
    Hi Frank, The last link should help with the immediate answer.... but the first step is to calculate the fair-line (no vig). Check the second post at the first link below. Good luck

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...-line-mls.html

    http://sportsbettingsites.org/bettin...ig-calculator/

  8. #8
    Frank Mills
    Frank Mills's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-26-18
    Posts: 1,244

    Disregard my last response Miz. It is working fine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miz View Post
    Hi Frank, The last link should help with the immediate answer.... but the first step is to calculate the fair-line (no vig). Check the second post at the first link below. Good luck

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...-line-mls.html

    http://sportsbettingsites.org/bettin...ig-calculator/

  9. #9
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 4,101
    Betpoints: 2887

    Quote Originally Posted by Miz View Post
    hi Danshan, fav/longshot bias is a separate topic all together. The calculator above looks to handle the calculation correctly, although I didn't manually check it... looks close though -556
    most vig calculators do not split it appropriately, they usually just figure the margin and split it in 2 and the truth is nobody really knows exactly how they do it and they do change it as well

  10. #10
    Frank Mills
    Frank Mills's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-26-18
    Posts: 1,244

    Nobody knows danshan ? Somebody knows.

  11. #11
    Frank Mills
    Frank Mills's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-26-18
    Posts: 1,244

    I don't think I asked my question quite right. I meant to ask more about how to find value within the lines more.

    I can't get my head right lol

  12. #12
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 4,101
    Betpoints: 2887

    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Mills View Post
    Nobody knows danshan ? Somebody knows.
    the books who set the lines know, but they do not apply vig evenly on fave and longshot. look up fave long shot bias and read about it, you will get a clear understanding that vig is not split evenly

  13. #13
    Frank Mills
    Frank Mills's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-26-18
    Posts: 1,244

    I got ya

  14. #14
    Big Bear
    Heard you getting money how it feel
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 38,469
    Betpoints: 8430

    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Mills View Post
    Okay,

    Let's say we have the Golden State Warriors vs the Chicago Bulls and the line is

    Warriors -12 with a Money Line of -670 and let's say +540 for the Bulls.


    Is there a way to figure out the actual mathematical estimated chance of the

    Warriors winning straight up or vice versa ( The Bulls )


    Thanks guys !
    Hell naw

    Especially in the NBA

  15. #15
    Big Bear
    Heard you getting money how it feel
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 38,469
    Betpoints: 8430

    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Mills View Post
    I don't think I asked my question quite right. I meant to ask more about how to find value within the lines more.

    I can't get my head right lol
    Okay Frank

    there is no substitute for watching games.

    watch as many as you can. Get as familiar as you can.

    then after seeing this team play and them passing your eye test then go and lay -500 but put it in parlay

  16. #16
    JacketFan81
    JacketFan81's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-28-17
    Posts: 139
    Betpoints: 341

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Okay Frank

    there is no substitute for watching games.

    watch as many as you can. Get as familiar as you can.

    then after seeing this team play and them passing your eye test then go and lay -500 but put it in parlay
    Sound advice! 🤣

Top