1. #1
    Gaze73
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    Variance can be very deceiving

    This is what a break-even system looks like. It looked like a gold mine in the first 50 bets, but apparently there is no long term value on home favs.

  2. #2
    danshan11
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    Hey Gaze news flash

    there is no value in any of these categories by just the category, although there may be value in some of the games in these categories

    dogs at home
    dogs on road
    faves at home
    faves on the road
    small faves anywhere
    big faves anywhere
    small dogs anywhere
    big dogs anywhere
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  3. #3
    TommieGunshot
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    50 bets is like one weekend. Not many of us are deceived by that any more

  4. #4
    tsty
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    millionaire yet?

  5. #5
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by tsty View Post
    millionaire yet?
    It's a bit harder than I expected. Multiple systems have crashed and burned like the one in the OP, BUT some are still steadily working for several months now and I have many meta-analyses to do yet. Cash printer v2.0 will be ready and rolling by the end of the year.

  6. #6
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    It's a bit harder than I expected. Multiple systems have crashed and burned like the one in the OP, BUT some are still steadily working for several months now and I have many meta-analyses to do yet. Cash printer v2.0 will be ready and rolling by the end of the year.
    Gaze, there is no such thing as a "system", unless you find a model that consistently finds value by beating the closing line, you will not make money at this.

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  7. #7
    Gaze73
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    I disagree. There are ways to discover vulnerable favs at sucker odds and I have several of them. The majority of my long-term winning systems are draws and dogs, it's not that hard to hit 30+%.

  8. #8
    Alfa1234
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    I don't want to bring you down, but you are merely winning thanks to variance in those systems as well if you are simply picking draws and dogs correctly every now and then.

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  9. #9
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    I disagree. There are ways to discover vulnerable favs at sucker odds and I have several of them. The majority of my long-term winning systems are draws and dogs, it's not that hard to hit 30+%.
    there are a couple things here I want to address
    #1 sucker odds, they are all sucker odds because they all have juice in them now because of fave long shot bias some have even more juice
    #2 winning systems is not a phrase that has a relation to actually winning in sports betting, it sounds like snake oil sales
    #3 30+% of what? if you are talking ROI or a 30% edge you are drunk, you need to drink some coffee and take a cold shower.

    Gaze it is good you believe in yourself! Get some knowledge dude, read some of the books I am telling you to read!
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  10. #10
    danshan11
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    you know Gaze some days I win 29 out of 30 and some days I lose 20 out of 20
    is my system bad on certain days?
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  11. #11
    danshan11
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    SU: 206-189 (-0.03, 52.2%) avg line: -142.1 / 128.3 on / against: -$5,002 / +$2,855 ROI: -8.7% / +6.8%


    SU: 245-140 (1.20, 63.6%) avg line: -148.9 / 134.0 on / against: +$4,969 / -$7,025 ROI: +8.4% / -17.0%


    guess what these are?

    they are the yankees on Fridays since 2008 and the yankees on Wednesdays since 2008

    looks like betting the Yankees on Wednesday and fading them on Friday is a good bet, try it and see what happens dude!
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  12. #12
    danshan11
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    you need to learn one very important thing in sports betting, NOISE, what is noise? you have to know what is relevant and means something and what is just noise.
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  13. #13
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    #3 30+% of what? if you are talking ROI or a 30% edge you are drunk, you need to drink some coffee and take a cold shower.
    30% winrate, it's good enough to make a profit with draws and dogs. My systems are certainly much more logical than "team x playing on wednesdays". And the systems are neither backtested nor backtestable.

  14. #14
    danshan11
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    what is the difference of playing on wednesdays and playing just dogs? its the same exact essentially. Any time you make a play on anything for any reason other than their actually being value in that specific game, you are playing NOISE.
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  15. #15
    Gaze73
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    I don't just bet on all dogs, only on those underestimated by the market for god knows what reasons.

  16. #16
    danshan11
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    keep posting keep trying, you will learn some stuff Gaze and will do better, we all do!
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  17. #17
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    I don't just bet on all dogs, only on those underestimated by the market for god knows what reasons.
    The problem with only playing dogs is, odds are longer and it will take even longer to weed out the variance if you actually are winning. You could easily have 150+ plays with a 10% or more ROI and have been getting very lucky. The same goes for a "losing system" that's actually winning though.

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  18. #18
    tsty
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    Your mind set is still wrong

  19. #19
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by tsty View Post
    Your mind set is still wrong
    OK, Henry Youngman. Man tsty you are so irritating dude, you probably know some stuff we could all use and you instead choose to nitpick and puss out and not say YOU ARE WRONG BECAUSE blue is not a shade of red and here is proof wikipedia page 718. What if you are wrong Tsty who cares, nobody I say dumb shit everyday and I hope people correct me! Say what you mean man WTF
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  20. #20
    grey area
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    50 bets is like one weekend. Not many of us are deceived by that any more
    only need one but always want more

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  21. #21
    tsty
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    OK, Henry Youngman. Man tsty you are so irritating dude, you probably know some stuff we could all use and you instead choose to nitpick and puss out and not say YOU ARE WRONG BECAUSE blue is not a shade of red and here is proof wikipedia page 718. What if you are wrong Tsty who cares, nobody I say dumb shit everyday and I hope people correct me! Say what you mean man WTF
    That's what I mean

    His mind set is still wrong

    Thinking that the books are out there to "trick" him lol

    It's just more delusion

    This thread will end just like every other thread he has made with him telling people that he is right and they are wrong

    Yet he still hasn't even made 1k in edge lifetime

    Just another day in sportsbetting where people think they can beat maths

  22. #22
    danshan11
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    very true but it is still fun and blows me away to hear how people think!
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