[sycoogtit]

I'm not sure if this thread should go in 'Handicapper Think Tank' or 'Players Talk' -- sorry if I chose the wrong one.

I know I'm going to get a lot of people yelling because everyone seems to hate chase systems. This is a genuine question, so please don't hate on me for it. Give me a worthwhile answer or please don't answer at all.

I started betting using a well-known and oft-hated chase system. I recently started reading this forum and was convinced that chase systems are bad and I should handicap on my own.

Please don't laugh at the stupid things I've tried. I first started by using Sagarin's rankings, but that killed me. I then thought I should gather a lot of stats and compile it all to find which teams should statistically win, and by how much. I ran across AccuScore and was sold in minutes. I bought a 3-month subscription but have not had much success. I tried only wagering on games when AccuScore's record with the teams playing AND the game statistics combined were above 55% or 60%, but that didn't work too well. At one point they were somewhere around +15 units for a specific stat (i.e. when they were above 60% on O/U for the teams playing), and then a few days later they had lost all those units. I gathered from that experience that I wasn't gathering the right stats -- I would just use their daily picks. Mistake.

At this point, by using their daily picks, I had veered from doing my own handicapping to just using someone's picks. I found some awesome daily threads by http://biggdogg5n2.mysbrforum.com/ and that seems to be working out well. He goes to a ton of work to track which cappers are on hot streaks.

I realize everyone goes on cold streaks, and I still want to do my own handicapping. I have no clue where to really start, but found a really good post here http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...tml#post264005

I guess my question is: If you have sound money management and there is an END to each chase (so it's NOT Martingale -- please don't call it that: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marting...ting_system%29), what's wrong with it? Sure you'll take a huge hit once or twice, but you'll still end up ahead provided you're using good money management.

On a side note, if anyone can help me out with some online reading to learn about how to handicap, I would really appreciate that.

[Power Play]

don't use accuscore. don't chase. start small and once you get the hang of it increase your bet size. use a certain percentage of your bankroll per bet (1 to 5 percent) start with one percent unless you're a vetern. never go above 5 percent unless you know of a fix or (i'm not sure because i don't use him) RAS (right angle sports) totals if you get the right numbers he posted. From what i heard RAS is the best handicapper for college bball totals and doc's the best for nba ( i think he's cold though) i looked up ras's stats and it's pretty darn impressive so if you get a handicapper get him but you might get limits reduced like i said i don't use him. look up forums and analyze what certain respected posters are saying about games. DON'T PLAY ML WORSE THEN -200 EVER IF YOU'RE NEW AND DON'T CHASE AND NEVER GO ALL IN. i'm sure you'll get more sound advice from the people in this forum. BOL in your future endevors.

[Power Play]

one more thing if you use a handicapper/site don't use one that has a whole bunch of sportsbook advertisment posted on it, claims 80 plus percent winning percentage, or portray the handicapper in some hip/cool/slick style. eventually develop your own system and keep polishing it

[donjuan]

Players Talk but since I'm feeling magnanimous you can't turn a series of -EV bets into a long term profit. If your bets have a positive expectation then you should be betting the variant of Kelly that maximizes your expected utility. Can we please get a sticky here so we don't get the same questions over and over?

[Wrecktangle]

For some reason, everyone thinks that they should be making money in this business without all of the key ingredients:
1) math skills
2) time
3) patience

You might get by without 2 or 3 for a while, but you will always need 1.

Notice I didn't say knowledge of the sport. It helps but many times it gets in the way of handicapping.

Personally, there is nothing wrong with betting for fun. Use a limited bankroll, don't chase and play over your head, and look at it like "I'm going on vacation." You enjoy it, but you don't make money off vacation do you?

[sycoogtit]

Can we please get a sticky here so we don't get the same questions over and over?

This isn't a 'does JM work' question. I really wanted insights here instead of the usual hating. I appreciate your answer, but if you didn't want to answer then you shouldn't have.

you can't turn a series of -EV bets into a long term profit

I've heard that a hundred times and it really frustrates me. Sure, each game on its own might be -EV, but I don't think the series of games together is -EV. IMO it's very similar to a series of coin tosses. The probability of the first coin toss being heads is .5, the probability of the second being heads is .5*.5=.25, the probability of the nth being heads is (.5)^n. Someone tell me why this isn't right instead of just saying it isn't right.

For some reason, everyone thinks that they should be making money in this business without all of the key ingredients:
1) math skills
2) time
3) patience

Sorry I'm dumb. I only got past Calc III.

[u21c3f6]

I've heard that a hundred times and it really frustrates me. Sure, each game on its own might be -EV, but I don't think the series of games together is -EV. IMO it's very similar to a series of coin tosses. The probability of the first coin toss being heads is .5, the probability of the second being heads is .5*.5=.25, the probability of the nth being heads is (.5)^n. Someone tell me why this isn't right instead of just saying it isn't right.



Sorry I'm dumb. I only got past Calc III.

Just to clarify, the chance of throwing a second head after you have already thrown a head is .5. The chance of throwing two heads in a row from the start is .25. Very different scenarios and creates the "due" illusion of chase wagering IMO.

Joe.

[floridagolfer]

If all you do is risk your money on what other people say, you're destined to lose. The problem is that people jump on the picks of others after a run of hot picks and they don't get to enjoy the streak.

I'd suggest you do your damnest to learn how to handicap: learn how to ignore the worthless information.

[sycoogtit]

Just to clarify, the chance of throwing a second head after you have already thrown a head is .5. The chance of throwing two heads in a row from the start is .25.

Agreed. Thanks for saying that better than I could.

I'd suggest you do your damnest to learn how to handicap: learn how to ignore the worthless information.

I'm trying.

[BigdaddyQH]

If you want to chase, chase. That is your option. Enogh has been said both ways about it. If you opt to follow or chase, I would love to get you into a poker game, because all you are looking for is a handout. You obviously have no clue, or you would not do it. The streets in Vegas are full of chasers and guys who had "hot tips" and followed people.

[suicidekings]

Using a 3 game chase @ -110 as an example

Bet 1: 1.1 to win 1
Bet 2: 2.31 to win 2.1
Bet 3: 4.85 to win 4.41

Breakeven Win Rate for Individual Games: 52.38%
Series Win = +1.0u
Series Loss = -8.26u
Breakeven Series Win Rate = 87.9%

You're basically saying that you can pick one winner before you get three consecutive losers for any particular series. Using your analogy above of the coin flip, selecting three winners or losers in a row (50/50 chance of each) = 0.5 ^ 3 = 0.125 chance of losing three in a row = 0.875 chance of not losing three in a row.

So under ideal conditions, with all games being pure 50/50 chances of winning and zero uncertainty, you're still not even at the breakeven point (We'll call it even at ~88% for the time being). From there, consider that you are definitely not playing under ideal conditions. The uncertainties on a particular team's performance are not negligible.

This season in the NBA, the standard deviation in scoring (PF or PA) by the most consistent teams is around 9%, and one standard deviation is expected to encompass about 68% of events (basic stats). That's like saying that even the most consistent teams will be expected to score within plus or minus 8-10 points of their average only about two thirds of the time.

That's not even taking into account buying points, as is done in many "chase systems", where you'd be playing at -170 for each game (at best).

[mintybetmachine]

accuscore is bad, chase is bad, and you have no clue. Either bet for fun or learn math if you want $.

[sycoogtit]

suicidekings, that was a fantastic explanation. I gave you all the points I have. Thanks so much for taking the time to write that up.

I would love to get you into a poker game, because all you are looking for is a handout. You obviously have no clue

you have no clue

Very insightful comments guys. I'm pretty sure I explained that I have no clue in the first post. I wanted to know WHY chasing is bad if you have good money management and the chase actually ends at some point. The same sort of question has been asked a gazillion times in this forum and the best answers always seemed to be on par with yours -- maybe that's why they keep being asked. suicidekings did a great job of explaining and I'm grateful he took his time from handicapping to do it. Hopefully others will find his explanation useful in the future. It's too bad we can't get rid of yours and other worthless comments that litter forums.

[mintybetmachine]

suicidekings, that was a fantastic explanation. I gave you all the points I have. Thanks so much for taking the time to write that up.




Very insightful comments guys. I'm pretty sure I explained that I have no clue in the first post. I wanted to know WHY chasing is bad if you have good money management and the chase actually ends at some point. The same sort of question has been asked a gazillion times in this forum and the best answers always seemed to be on par with yours -- maybe that's why they keep being asked. suicidekings did a great job of explaining and I'm grateful he took his time from handicapping to do it. Hopefully others will find his explanation useful in the future. It's too bad we can't get rid of yours and other worthless comments that litter forums.

At the end of the day, all that matters is that my bankroll is larger than your bankroll. And trust me, an explanation of a chase has been done many times on this forum. I do not see how you plan on being successful at a data mining oriented business if you cannot find a post on a relatively small forum.

[suicidekings]

suicidekings, that was a fantastic explanation. I gave you all the points I have. Thanks so much for taking the time to write that up.

No worries. GL in your capping & wagers.

[suicidekings]

At the end of the day, all that matters is that my bankroll is larger than your bankroll.

I thought the books were the enemy... Not each other? We're all on the same side here.

[mintybetmachine]

I thought the books were the enemy... Not each other? We're all on the same side here.

Where do the books get money? The player. You need losing players if you want a cashout.

[suicidekings]

Where do the books get money? The player. You need losing players if you want a cashout.

No kidding... And there's no shortage of them in the betting world for you to earn your money from. No reason to rag on a guy that's just trying to learn.

[roasthawg]

Chasing is a quick way to get you rich... countless millions have been made by chase system players, eventually we'll all be rich from it!!!

[Peregrine Stoop]

accuscore is bad, chase is bad, and you have no clue. Either bet for fun or learn math if you want $.

this is right!!!!

[thebestthereis]

two simple rules. rule number 1, learn about money. rule number 2, first learn rule number 1.