I'm going to admit that i'm a bit of a chaser myself, when I started I bought a few systems and ebooks and my first go at things was a simple martingale chase which I used along with tout free picks, it started ok but it didn't take too long before I was forced to make bets bigger than what I could mentally cope with, so I would always bottle it when the progression got too high which mean't I was down a fair bit, I then tried labrouchere along with other systems from ebooks like bookie buster, same thing happened, the ebook would have systems like 33% system where you only need to win that amount for it to work, sounded good but the truth is the system was really 33% over a very small sample rate, as time went on I began tracking picks and trying new systems and I tested system after system with the sample data I had tracked and there was always a breaking point where it would go
up.
I have personally tracked daily picks (1 pick a day) where touts would go 9 strait days without getting a win, occasionally it would go to 8 or 9 in a row, fairly often 5-6 losses and very often 3-4 losing days in a row, these numbers will crush you using an aggressive chase.
What I do see after tracking picks long enough is that the best picks hit about 53% over a year, the worst maybe 46%.
I do still chase a bit here and there, but my bets may increase after a month, usually increased gradually per month, so that over a longer term you can clear a profit at a lower than 50% strike rate, it needs alot of patience though.
I am aware that this is no doubt an inefficient way of doing things but at least im learning new things on the way, until im good enough to cap myself with confidence this is the way I play.
I will say this, every aggressive chase system i've used has failed eventually, I often see new systems about and try and run simulations over the course of 1000 bets at about 48% strike rate to see how they hold up, some hold up but the roi over a fairly long period will be quite low, anything that does produce good profits always seems to bankrupt you before it can recover from losses at some point.
My advice if your gonna chase is set aside a portion of your bankroll, maybe 10% to use on a chase system at least then if it goes to shit you can try again, this has kept me in the game on more than a few occasions.
Also if anyone wants some tout free pick results im happy to send them over so you can test your methods with some real performance and see how back and forth it can be on a month to month basis.