http://killersports.com/ncaafb/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
seems like that filter has way too many games qualifying but i guess alot of FBS teams play lower level teams week 1....
i would look at it somewhat on team-by-team basis. i.e. coach general strategy. coaches of course change but i do think the situations are often similar. i.e. boise favored by 30 points week 1.
on a gross basis, all i could find was that very big favourites are 51% ATS week 1. and that's AFTER line movements which can be large. most of the large filters i used were 50% ATS.......