Let's say we find a situational trend for NBA:
Bet a team that has not covered in their last 4 games vs a team that did cover their last game which has hit 55% over last 3 seasons (not true but just for educational purposes). This trend would not take into account the actual line on the game, so will the trend revert to mean every time? If that is the case there is no value in betting on such a trend.