1. #1
    CamNewtonOutfit
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    Most significant variables for NFL games

    anyone do studies of various stats for NFL games and willing to share info on most significant stats? i have found point differential has about 50% correlation with winning future games.

  2. #2
    Bsims
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    opponent turnovers

    Back in the 1970's I did a study and found the most significant contributor to a team's score was the number of opponents turnovers. I guess that's pretty much the same today.

  3. #3
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    Back in the 1970's I did a study and found the most significant contributor to a team's score was the number of opponents turnovers. I guess that's pretty much the same today.
    Turnover differential, when used properly, could be one of the best NFL metrics you can find.

    It's not the information, it's how you use it.

    Another one to look at would be Yards per Pass Attempt.


  4. #4
    sshz
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    Another very important stat, one that many don't look at but is followed closely by one of the best touts year in and year out is............

    Yds. per 1st down

    By getting some decent yardage on 1st down, it allows flexibility in your play calling in 2nd and 3rd downs, thus making it harder for the defense to defend.

  5. #5
    MalikHusam
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    Back in the 1970's I did a study and found the most significant contributor to a team's score was the number of opponents turnovers. I guess that's pretty much the same today.
    remember to discount turnovers during garbagetime (when team goes no huddle for 15 str8 plays when down 7-14 pts with a couple mins left in 4q)
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 06/21/2018

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 06/11/2018


  6. #6
    evo34
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Turnover differential, when used properly, could be one of the best NFL metrics you can find.

    It's not the information, it's how you use it.

    Another one to look at would be Yards per Pass Attempt.

    It used to be easy money to bet on bad turnover teams when playing good turnover teams. It's not so simple these days.

  7. #7
    jane2geo
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    Quote Originally Posted by CamNewtonOutfit View Post
    anyone do studies of various stats for NFL games and willing to share info on most significant stats? i have found point differential has about 50% correlation with winning future games.
    This is a good starting point.
    http://archive.advancedfootballanaly...in-part-1.html

  8. #8
    Roscoe_Word
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    Quote Originally Posted by jane2geo View Post
    That is an excellent link. Will try breaking it down now. Thank you for posting.

  9. #9
    evo34
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    That link is 10 years old. it's worth reading, but certainly don't think the stats they identify haven't changed.

  10. #10
    jane2geo
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    Quote Originally Posted by evo34 View Post
    That link is 10 years old. it's worth reading, but certainly don't think the stats they identify haven't changed.
    You are correct. I believe Def FF's and Def Int's were eliminated from the model.

    But it's still a wonderful starting point for anyone starting out.

  11. #11
    MalikHusam
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    Quote Originally Posted by MalikHusam View Post
    remember to discount turnovers during garbagetime (when team goes no huddle for 15 str8 plays when down 7-14 pts with a couple mins left in 4q)
    to quote a sharp guy, its impossible to stop anybody in the 4q with these rules
    I add that its impossible unless you stop yrself by turning itover
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 06/21/2018

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 06/11/2018


  12. #12
    CamNewtonOutfit
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    I heard turnovers were random meaning that say 1 year a team has tons of turnovers going for it, the next year the total will go down causing them to lose more games.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    Back in the 1970's I did a study and found the most significant contributor to a team's score was the number of opponents turnovers. I guess that's pretty much the same today.

  13. #13
    CamNewtonOutfit
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    Okay thanks but heres another follow up, assuming the team with the most favorable metric wins games is it this game itself or over the past season last year, or the last 2 games that wins the next game?

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Turnover differential, when used properly, could be one of the best NFL metrics you can find.

    It's not the information, it's how you use it.

    Another one to look at would be Yards per Pass Attempt.


  14. #14
    Jupiter333
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    Teams with a >.5/game turnover margin DISADVANTAGE cover the spread 54% of the time in weeks 5-15 in the NFL.

    In other words, things regress to the mean and you are betting a losing proposition to bet on a team that has an turnover advantage based on past in-season results.

    Same with yards per pass play....going opposite of what transpired before gives you a slight edge....a one yard/play net team advantage in yards passing/play versus their present opponent covers 48% of the time.

    In other words, if team A throws for 8.0 yards/pass play and allows 7.0 yards/pass play and team B throws for 6.5 yards/pass play and allows 7.5 yards/pass play,....team B has historically going back to 1989 had a slight advantage against the spread, covering 51.6% of the time.

  15. #15
    getlucky2win
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    Best qb wins these days

  16. #16
    temple2010
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    you all know stats lie- just watch as many games as you can.

  17. #17
    evo34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jupiter333 View Post
    Teams with a >.5/game turnover margin DISADVANTAGE cover the spread 54% of the time in weeks 5-15 in the NFL.
    Not any more...

  18. #18
    Jupiter333
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    Quote Originally Posted by evo34 View Post
    Not any more...
    The issue being made earlier in the thread was that teams with a past in-season turnover margin advantage are good plays.

    I pointed out that this is not true, which it isn't, and most people would make that deduction from my statement.

    Since 2012 it is about a 50-50 proposition 167-170 ATS to be exact.

  19. #19
    evo34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jupiter333 View Post
    The issue being made earlier in the thread was that teams with a past in-season turnover margin advantage are good plays.

    I pointed out that this is not true, which it isn't, and most people would make that deduction from my statement.

    Since 2012 it is about a 50-50 proposition 167-170 ATS to be exact.
    That's exactly what I said: "Not any more". And no one in this thread has claimed that better turnover margin teams are good bets.

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