[statnerds]

i must say for a forum area touted as a think tank, the only thing i read is guarded claims made with zero statistical data to substantiate the assertion. if you aren't here to share, then why the hell are you here?

anyway, does anyone sell points? i didn't know 5Dimes still did it on NFL and NCAAF. so i had to track this season to see how many games land within 2 pts of the closing spread.

NFL
0 pts- 6 games landed on the number
.5 pt- 7 games
1 pt- 10 games
1.5 pts- 3 games
2 pts- 6 games

so of the 256 NFL reg season games, 32 games landed within 2 pts of the closing number. so of the 512 sides you could have taken, 32 would have cost you a win or a push depending on how many points you sold. so is 6% a small enough number to increase your risk?

i've played about 20 games so far using this idea and none have come near the spread of total. and while the sample size is extremely small, it appears to be a viable way to reduce my B/E pt. the avg line i have wagered on thus far is +107, reducing my B/E pt to 48.30%. so if i take a successful capper in NFL, myself for example (55% over 2 NFL seasons), i would increase my profit by a significant margin. it would turn anyone able to hit 50% into a money-maker.

i know it has been awhile since the demise of action points, but does anyone sell 1 or 1.5 a game? i need someone that did so for an entire season.

thoughts?

[Peep]

Thought:

Even if you looked at ten years of data, 2560 games, you would not in my opinion have enough data to come up with very much.

Looking at one season isn't going to tell you much.

End of thought.

[xyz]

Different spread amount hits with very different frequency in the NFL. I think you should change your table into one table per spread amount. So you would have a table on how often it hits on the spread for a 1 point spread, and different table for a 7 point spread. Better yet, you can use the half point calculator to see how often this happens. The half point calculator must use more data than one season.

[statnerds]

Different spread amount hits with very different frequency in the NFL. I think you should change your table into one table per spread amount. So you would have a table on how often it hits on the spread for a 1 point spread, and different table for a 7 point spread. Better yet, you can use the half point calculator to see how often this happens. The half point calculator must use more data than one season.

i like the idea, but creating a bunch tables for a bunch of data i would never use sounds like too much work. i just checked last season to get an idea of the frequency of games staying with a certain number of points of the spread.

as for the half point calculator, i find it a useful tool, but it doesn't tell me if the how many times a fav won by a certain, just the % of games. so when i see over 5% or whatever number lands on 3, it really doesn't matter in the context of selling points unless the Fav won by exactly 3 when the line was 3. i imagine that number would be infinitely small, making the selling of points a profitable endeavor.

10 years wouldn't be 2,560, it would 5,120.

i'm not trying to discover a system or trend, merely looking at incresing my profit by lowering my B/E point under 50%. at some point this year, i will take all of wins and see if the selling of any points would have had an affect on the outcome. i know that right off the bat it would reduce the juice i paid on my losses from 10 cents to the book paying me for my play, and that is the key!!

for instance, i like the Jets again this week only because SD can't stop the run and can't run the ball. i expect a game closer than a TD, but selling it down to a dead number like 5.5 makes little sense. selling it to 4.5 would cover 3 and 4 and give me substantially higher +odds. probably sell it to 6 and see what happens.

thanks for the input gents.

[Doug]

You can hit below 50% and win at matchbook.

Take any game that has a normal spread and is like -110 at CRIS.

Offer up -108 both ways at MB, you get +108, that should win money at 50% over time, in theory....but you also would have to watch steam moves like a hawk, in particular RAS totals.

[statnerds]

I also think i should look at it from the other side as well, my performance in realtion to the spread. i was 40-31 in the NFL this season, with 23 winning sides and 17 winning totals. the avg winning margin on the sides was +9.37 pts and the winning margin on totals was +12.15. 2 of the totals won by 1 pt, but i know i would have sold only half a point or none, because i wouldn't cross or risk pushing on Key Numbers. the totals in question were Under 42 and Over 48. i sure as hell wouldn't sell and Under down to 41. None of the winning side plays landed within 2 points of the spread i got. none of the other 15 winning total plays stayed within a TD.

so basically, if i took a conservative view based on the average line i am getting myself as is of +107, and only considered +100, i would have dropped the amount lost on my losses from $3,410 to $3,100, a reduction of 9%. even if i further assume the selling of a full point on every side and total, it would have resulted in 2 wins becoming pushes, dropping my record to 38-31. however, with the reduced amount of juice, i would have netted $700, an 18.64% increase over the $590 based on playing lines at -110.

this looks favorable so far. i require at least a sample size of 30 to even begin considering a sample relevant, but would prefer something in the hundreds.

[donjuan]

For someone with the name "statnerds", you'd think you'd be able to grasp such a basic concept as the value of a half-point. Your sample size comments are rather laughable.

[durito]

i can lower my break even to 1%

[donjuan]

i can lower my break even to 1%

Fairly bizarre that the title has little to do with the content of the post, yet both manage to be completely ridiculous.

[Igetp2s]

Just bet dogs on the ML and you won;t have to hit 50%.

[Bswitz32]

I would take dogs and that way you can be a little below 50% and still be ahead of the pack

bol

[byronbb]

Could Kelly aid in this quest?

[Justin7]

Blindly selling points is a fast path to the poorhouse. If your plays have value, you'll win long-term. If they don't, you'll lose. Selling half-points will just make you lost faster, assuming they sell them for less than the fair value.

[statnerds]

For someone with the name "statnerds", you'd think you'd be able to grasp such a basic concept as the value of a half-point. Your sample size comments are rather laughable.

i think instead of the constant bashing that takes place you should attempt some reading comprehension. you offered nothing substantial to this thread except to point out that you have zero vision. how do you not grasp this? i will try again, i go slow and use as many small words as possible.

first and foremost you must be aware (almost use cognizant there, but your brain would have stalled) of the fact that the BOOK WILL NOT GIVE ME FAIR VALUE on the half-point. that would be enough to scare off folks like yourself. it is not a question of fair value, it is a matter of swinging my long term juice from - to +.

over the last two NFL seasons I have won 55% of my plays. allow me to do the math for you. that is being on the right side of games more than on the wrong side.

here is an example where you may learn something, but probably not.

i love Over in the Minny game this weekend. it is at 45.5. I already played it at 5Dimes and sold 1 pt to make it Over 46.5 +107. now a seasoned stats man and NFL high-roller like yourself should be well aware that in that range 46 is as close to a dead number that a total can get. certainly you are aware that 37, 41, 47 and it goes on from there. so i like a game to go over 45.5, i refuse to buy a half point to lay extra juice to get to a number that comes up less than 4% of NFL games. instead i sell that point through the dead number of 46, stay under the 3 most frequent number of 47 and instead of laying -110 i am getting paid +107.

i'll do it with the Jets as well this week. i already have them +7.5. waiting for the public to push it down to 6.5, at which point i will sell the Jets to 4.5 (notice that will cover 3 and 4, a combined 12.78% of finals) and again swing my odds from -110 to probably around +120 or so.

here is an example of a losing one you so you can start to use your brain. i liked both Philly and Baltimore last week. sold both to +3 +120. went 1-1 and finished up. do you understand yet that i risk less? both lines were at 3.5 and i refuse to lay extra juice to hope for a push. i trust my capping and felt i had the right side in both games. so i still have the 3 covered, but i am getting positive odds.

you know what? i just figured out that maybe SBR isn't the forum for me. all i see from senior members is insults with no sharing of information at all (save for Justin). i read thread after thread where the "sharp" guys in here just rip people instead of trying to point out where someone made an error and help them along. you all brag about your massive knowledge base, but produce nothing of substance that i can see or post any plays. your cute little one-sentence answers contribute nothing. better to hide behind demeaning response than actually help out fellow bettors. fukk it, think i am wasting my time here. this forum has nothing to offer me to grow as a handicapper.

[statnerds]

Blindly selling points is a fast path to the poorhouse. If your plays have value, you'll win long-term. If they don't, you'll lose. Selling half-points will just make you lost faster, assuming they sell them for less than the fair value.

in total agreement with that.

one of the first i sold was a pt in the Tech/Iowa game, taking Iowa +4.5 +105. at the time it was 5.5 and i thought it would go down. so is one point worth 15 cents? only when that point crosses a dead number like 5. so they gave me +odds on a top 10 defense in the country and gave me 4.5 pts. it is specific situations like that which produce, and will continue to produce, opportunities.

[donjuan]

first and foremost you must be aware (almost use cognizant there, but your brain would have stalled) of the fact that the BOOK WILL NOT GIVE ME FAIR VALUE on the half-point. that would be enough to scare off folks like yourself. it is not a question of fair value, it is a matter of swinging my long term juice from - to +.

Please learn to use gambling terms correctly. Selling points cannot change juice from - to +.
For the rest of that, if they won't give you fair value or better, are you planning on performing voodoo?

over the last two NFL seasons I have won 55% of my plays. allow me to do the math for you. that is being on the right side of games more than on the wrong side.

What's the eWin% of your plays compared to an assumed efficient close?

i love Over in the Minny game this weekend. it is at 45.5. I already played it at 5Dimes and sold 1 pt to make it Over 46.5 +107. now a seasoned stats man and NFL high-roller like yourself should be well aware that in that range 46 is as close to a dead number that a total can get. certainly you are aware that 37, 41, 47 and it goes on from there. so i like a game to go over 45.5, i refuse to buy a half point to lay extra juice to get to a number that comes up less than 4% of NFL games. instead i sell that point through the dead number of 46, stay under the 3 most frequent number of 47 and instead of laying -110 i am getting paid +107.

The 46 isn't worth 17 cents so in the case you are getting better than fair value for your sell. If 45.5 flat is efficient it's not +ev on its own, but o46.5 +107 is certainly better than o45.5 -110.

i'll do it with the Jets as well this week. i already have them +7.5. waiting for the public to push it down to 6.5, at which point i will sell the Jets to 4.5 (notice that will cover 3 and 4, a combined 12.78% of finals) and again swing my odds from -110 to probably around +120 or so.

LOL WTF? You're going to let the line move and then sell the points when you can't get as much for them?

here is an example of a losing one you so you can start to use your brain. i liked both Philly and Baltimore last week. sold both to +3 +120. went 1-1 and finished up. do you understand yet that i risk less? both lines were at 3.5 and i refuse to lay extra juice to hope for a push. i trust my capping and felt i had the right side in both games. so i still have the 3 covered, but i am getting positive odds.

Wow, I'm not sure even BigdaddyQH would attempt to use such awful logic.

you know what? i just figured out that maybe SBR isn't the forum for me. all i see from senior members is insults with no sharing of information at all (save for Justin). i read thread after thread where the "sharp" guys in here just rip people instead of trying to point out where someone made an error and help them along. you all brag about your massive knowledge base, but produce nothing of substance that i can see or post any plays. your cute little one-sentence answers contribute nothing. better to hide behind demeaning response than actually help out fellow bettors. fukk it, think i am wasting my time here. this forum has nothing to offer me to grow as a handicapper

Want to know why people aren't overly helpful? Because people ask the same questions over and over without bothering to use the search function. You're asking a question here that Ganchrow already put a ton of work into with the half-point calculator. But you're too lazy/thick to read through his posts and attempt to understand them. You (and others like you) expect everyone to just tell you exactly how they beat sports and hold your hand the whole way. There is a ton of good info on here (Justin included, but others too) if you are willing to use your brain a bit rather than expect be given a free lunch with a complimentary happy ending massage. Perhaps you are right that SBR isn't for you.

[durito]

Actually the current sbr is perfect

[statnerds]

But you're too lazy/thick to read through his posts and attempt to understand them. You (and others like you) expect everyone to just tell you exactly how they beat sports and hold your hand the whole way.

it is impossible for you to be this stupid. holy fukk, can you comprehend one sentence. i really don't even know where to start. at least i won't be repeating myself....oh wait I will!!!

1. I will never get "fair value" selling points,
It remains in the best interest of books to charge more than fair value for buying points while the opposite is true for selling. I know that part going in. That is not my interest.

2. I already beat the NFL -
This post has nothing to do with getting something for nothing or have my hand held or for anyone to tell me how to beat any market.

This post started to hopefully get intelligent input from other people. but in your haste to bash and insult, you missed the point.

how about a good old fashion mathematical statement

A. I will not get fair vlaue
B. I already beat the NFL
C. I will avoid selling through Key Numbers

Given A, B and C, is the selling of points in ideal situations a viable method to maximize my profit potential?

and i applaud the effort required to build the half-point calculator, but it is lacking a few areas. one of my first post on SBR was in praise of it and asking a question that went ignored. It isn't broken down by Fav and pointspread and result, nor can i find the time period covered by the Data.

[statnerds]

Actually the current sbr is perfect

color me surprised

another senior member hiding behind cute one-liners instead of helping

if i start with the virtual fellatio now can i hang out with you cool guys?

[donjuan]

Given A, B and C, is the selling of points in ideal situations a viable method to maximize my profit potential?

If you aren't getting fair value or better for selling points, it is not a viable method for anything other than burning money.* Justin already told you this. Just because you refuse to believe it doesn't mean anyone is missing the point.

*Note: selling points for fair value is bad too because you are increasing your variance without an appropriate increase in exp return.

[raiders72002]

For someone with the name "statnerds", you'd think you'd be able to grasp such a basic concept as the value of a half-point. Your sample size comments are rather laughable.

some things never change. You're still an idiot.

[raiders72002]

You can find advantages to selling points by playing pleasers in NCAA football although it is tough to find a book that allows to please high totals and spreads.

[donjuan]

Will you be embarrassing yourself about the value of the 2 in NBA again?

[raiders72002]

Will you be embarrassing yourself about the value of the 2 in NBA again?

nah, more fun watching you embarrass yourself on a daily basis. I've also sold points in the AFL at Pinny at one time.

[raiders72002]

Will you be embarrassing yourself about the value of the 2 in NBA again?

dufus - That was NCAA tourney

[durito]

it still doesn't have any value

[raiders72002]

it still doesn't have any value

how much data did you run? As I stated before, I never ran the numbers. Just took someone's advice.

I would still think the sample size would be small looking up NCAA tourney games with a line of 2 and I'm not even sure if the total was a consideration.

Someone told me buy and I bought.

[durito]

did you not read the thread. i linked it at peeps the other day. ganch ran the covers #'s. it was there for a slight time years ago (with an absurdly small sample size) and has since gone the other way.

[raiders72002]

did you not read the thread. i linked it at peeps the other day. ganch ran the covers #'s. it was there for a slight time years ago (with an absurdly small sample size) and has since gone the other way.

OK, I believe you.

[statnerds]

If you aren't getting fair value or better for selling points, it is not a viable method for anything other than burning money.* Justin already told you this. Just because you refuse to believe it doesn't mean anyone is missing the point.

do you read anyone's full post? fairly certain Justin stated "blindly selling" is not a good strategy, which i completely agree with.

it is also at this point i must point out your flaw in logic. you are relying on the .5 calculator that tells you nearly 10% of NFL games are decided by 3 pts. so the fukk what. that only concerns me if the line is 3 and the favorite wins by 3. go find me that number. i'll go way out on a limb and suggest it is less than 2.5%. what's that make the fair value of a half point?

and like everything else, will have to do this one on my own. i will share results although, unlike you stingy bastards....

[donjuan]

Actually around 15% of all NFL games are decided by exactly 3. You should familiarize yourself with the methodology behind the HPC because your assumptions about it are wildly inaccurate.

[statnerds]

Actually around 15% of all NFL games are decided by exactly 3. You should familiarize yourself with the methodology behind the HPC because your assumptions about it are wildly inaccurate.

and again a cute but useless fukking answer. i bounced all over the HPC, searched for the thread, searched for the period of time covered, searched for a way to make distinctions between fav or dog winning and received zero helped when i asked.

and so it continues...you continue to talk out of your ass instead of assisting.

the HPC actually states 9.78% so please tell me where 15% comes from.

i am quickly coming to the conclusion you have very little idea what you are talking about and therefore prove yourself worthless.

[smitch124]

and again a cute but useless fukking answer. i bounced all over the HPC, searched for the thread, searched for the period of time covered, searched for a way to make distinctions between fav or dog winning and received zero helped when i asked.

and so it continues...you continue to talk out of your ass instead of assisting.

the HPC actually states 9.78% so please tell me where 15% comes from.

i am quickly coming to the conclusion you have very little idea what you are talking about and therefore prove yourself worthless.

Some of Ganch's post are unreadable (at least to me), but this thread is a decent starting point in understanding the HPC.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-handic...equencies.html

[donjuan]

The link Smitch posted has everything you just asked for. The HPC is specifically for how often an x pt fav wins by x, with a 2 pt radius for an increased sample size. It has nothing to do with how often a general NFL or other sport game lands on a specific number.

[raiders72002]

actually around 15% of all nfl games are decided by exactly 3. You should familiarize yourself with the methodology behind the hpc because your assumptions about it are wildly inaccurate.

lmfao