[wal66]

Now I have heard it mentioned before. Yesterday PeeWee reminded me that I already knew of this rule. Knowing of something and understanding the reasoning though aren't always the same thing. Hopefully someone here is willing to explain what it seems only I am missing.

I capped the MNF every which way. I crossed referenced scores from the season, home and away and common opponents. This isn't eveything I do when capping but I use this to help predict a score. No matter how I did the numbers Arizona -3 was the results. Now I already liked Arizona and would normally like the -3.5 if my numbers suggested the -3 but I wasn't super confident. So I like Arizona and I definately like the under makes sense to tease the 2 right? In doing so I broke a rule about never crossing 0 in the NFL. I have heard this before but I can't grasp the concept yet. If you like a team at a field goal or less why would you not get them plus the field goal? I know why it didn't work lastnight (7 turnovers had something to do with it as well) but why is it a rule of thumb?

This isn't a Players Talk tease. I am seriously trying to learn something here.

[Fishhead]

Simply because you are crossing weak 'DEAD' numbers.............your much better off teasing through numbers 3, 4, 6, and 7............so much so, that in some cases it takes the -ev out of teasing.

By the way, do not get to involved with the technical theories of handicapping, as they should only be a small portion of how to become a longterm winner in this business.

Concentrate your efforts on money manadgement, discipline, finding weak numbers, and anticipating moves(which is somewhat technical)...........and if you play offshore, attacking all the different offerrings available that are +EV.

Also, if you play offshore, would highly recommend having an account with Matchbook.

GL,
FH

[wal66]

Fishy, I won't make it a high priority. I just really want to learn the ins and outs is all. The more we know the better we grow, right. My capping is still developing. It is a hobby for me but one I am increasingly enjoying. I have transformed from a complete degenerate square to a slightly less degenerate square. By learning more I hope to eventually become a seldom degenerate square.

I do need to start using offshore accounts more. Especially this Matchbook deal. I have never even looked at the site but I know from reading Pags stuff when he was around there are plenty of better values than what I am currently limiting myself to.

[MrX]

For starters, can you explain why, when you cap the game at Arizona -3, you think Arizona -3.5 has value?

[wal66]

My answer may not seem logical to you but I will explain anyways.

I am 100% sure when capping the game Arizona is going to win. Everything indicated a 3 point victory. Now if the line were San Fran +7 it changes what I am thinking but it wasn't. So I am thinking that while Arizona probably wins by 7+ there is a chance they win by 1 as well. Now I'm not entertaining the idea that San Fran is gonna win. If I feel that Arizona wins the game that would only give me 3 chances to win with San Fran +3.5 and a maximum of 9 chances to win with San Fran teased to +10. Where as since I already KNOW in my head Arizona is going to win I have infinite opportunities to win with Arizona +3.

I know the example might be confusing but I assure there is logic in the way I was thinking even if it's bad logic.

[thebestthereis]

Try looking at a game from a different perspective. I don't handicap and don't play with numbers very much at all. The first thing I look to do when I see a matchup is to find the team to bet AGAINST, not on. Last night I looked to bet against Zona and not ON SF. The spot was right to go against Zona. I didn't care if SF was 2-10 or even favored by 3. Most spreads mean nothing and almost never land on what is posted. Look at things differently than others and you will prosper, follow the herd and you'll get nowhere.

[wal66]

I appreciate the comments guys but mathematically why is crossing 0 a bad situation. Granted the game lost so it's obvious in this case after the fact but before and assuming you like Arizona what factual reason is there against crossing 0?

Don't take it the wrong way I am not being stubburn. I am merely trying to learn something.

[williams22]

I appreciate the comments guys but mathematically why is crossing 0 a bad situation. Granted the game lost so it's obvious in this case after the fact but before and assuming you like Arizona what factual reason is there against crossing 0?

Don't take it the wrong way I am not being stubburn. I am merely trying to learn something.

Crossing the 0 is not smart because most of the points you are paying for won't actually matter. Take Arizona -3.5 for instance. A 6-point teaser puts this to +2.5. However, the only point that will likely matter at all here is the first point that takes you from -3.5 to -2.5. Your chances of winning the bet improve very slightly as you go from -2.5 to +2.5, but nearly enough compared to the juice you are paying. It is a marginal gain in your chances of winning at best for a fairly steep price.

Why not just buy 1 point on this line to -2.5?

[FishFace5]

Wal i can give you a real basic answer. Somebody smarter than me is gonna have to answer the math side of it. Basically it is because your wasting the points. There's a sticky posted with the percentages of a game landing on particular #'s. Instead of teasing through zero on Zona you would have been better off teasing the niners up to +9 or +9.5. Look up and read about wong teasers, that should give you a whole bunch of info bout this topic. Hope that helps.

[Indecent]

Fishhead basically answered it. When you tease, you want to cross as many of the key numbers as possible. The only teaser I use (for NFL) is the Wong Teaser(from Sharp Sports Betting), where you gain the 3 and 7 on a 6 point teaser by moving from +1.5/+2.5 to +7.5/+8.5 or -8.5/-7.5 to -2.5/-1.5. This hits enough key numbers to make it profitable long term, even betting them blind.

Since it is uncommon to win by 1 or 2, you hardly gain any value crossing them. When crossing zero, you are gaining worthless numbers (1 and 2) twice. No matter how accurate you think you have handicapped the game (no offense mean, I was on AZ too..), you don't gain enough value long term for them to be profitable.

To see the percentages or math involved on how to decide when to buy points, etc, check out the NFL push frequencies sticky, half-point calculator tool, any video by Justin, and old posts in here.

[wal66]

Cool that helps. Thanks guys.

[suicidekings]

Indecent beat me to it.. It's all about push probabilities. If you were to graph them, you'll see three high points around 3, 7, and 10, with games ending in an MOV of between 0-2 making up only around 8% of total games.

So if a spread is Team A -3 & Team B +3:

Teasing Team A to +3: Accounts for about 21% of games, historically (with 60% of those games falling on the 3)
Teasing Team B to +9: Accounts for about 49% of games, historically.

So blindly taking the second option would be 2.5x as profitable as the first option over time (but still not profitable overall)

[BigdaddyQH]

Two mistakes here. First, teasing is a suckers play. It shows weakness in your beliefs. You get terrible odds for your wager. No big time gambler every plays teasers. Teased or not, Arizona was a big loser.

Second, you can not state that you were 100% sure that Arizona was going to win the game if you 'capped the game out at -3.5. You have to have a line of -7.5 or higher to state with any kind of confidence that Arizona could not lose. Somewheres in your 'capping, you either gave Arizona too much credit, or the 49'ers too little credit. Did you take into consideraton that Arizona had already lost to the 49ers at home this season? How about the fact that the Cards were 0-4 as Monday Night favorites? How about the Cards being 0-7 as a favorite off of a S/U non division dog win? Now I know that the visitor in this series was 9-0 going into this game, but that was easily offset by the other angles and trends. I'm not saying that Arizona was a poor play. What I am saying is that Arizona, coming off a win against a major conference contender, was certainly not going to be up for this game, and certainly was not a lock to win it.

[rk9]

To go along with everyone elses answer, there is more value in buying any point (example -9.5 to -8.5) than -.5 to +.5. In Bball and college football you cant tie so there is no value to that point and in NFL it is extremely rare to end in a tie. So you are paying for a useless point

[Indecent]

Two mistakes here. First, teasing is a suckers play. No big time gambler every plays teasers.

Wong Teasers......

[Tomato]

Wong Teasers......

Don't....

Let him continue to think he has a clue. It's comical.

[Hybris]

Don't....

Let him continue to think he has a clue. It's comical.

[Dunder]

Adding to the consensus:

Below are historical margins of victory for NFL:

0 points 0.20%
1 point 4.27%
2 pts 3.74%
3 pts 15.38%
4 pts 5.58%
5 pts 3.15%
6 pts 5.76%
7 pts 8.04%
8 pts 2.56%
9 pts 1.83%
10 pts 5.80%
11 pts 3.28%
12 pts 1.63%
13 pts 3.13%
14 pts 4.66%
15 pts 1.63%
16 pts 2.22%
17 pts 3.85%
18 pts 2.10%
19 pts 1.80%
20 pts 2.62%

By teasing through zero, you essentially buy statistically unlikely outcomes, whereas with Wong you buy the most likely.