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Teasers the good and not so good about them
Teasers are very alluring,but are said to be the biggest suckers bet on the board true or false and if so why? There are plenty of old salt on this site please restate the facts. Please educate us. There are 2 team 3,4.5 team teasers what is the price(points) involved and also the difference in the money line. Thanks in advance.
To put it briefly, teasers are a sucker play because of the odds involved. Teaser bets are a key source of income for the books. Example. If you play 6.5 point two team teasers, you will hit about 50% of those wagers. The problem is that you are giving 13/10, which is 56.5%, giving the house a huge edge. You are giving 13/10 instead of the usual 11/10 on a straight wager, and winning just slightly more than if you took all dogs (48%) and even less if you took all favorites (52%). It is all in the odds. The more teams or points you take, the bigger the book's advantage. Vegas will never come up with a new game or type of wager that does NOT increase the house's edge, no matter how it may look to the average gambler.
Say it once, say it 1,000 times: Stick to Wong Teasers and forget the rest and you'll be fine.
The "not so good" is finding books that'll take them at good odds.
my locals offer 2 team/7 point, 3 team/10 point, and 4 team/13 point- all at 120/100 and they take any ties (so players should take lines with a half point). however, there are literally hundreds of variations of teasers and each one has its own features so any meaningful discussion must include the specifics of the particular teaser being considered. as a general rule the all suck.
They are not so good when you have the Oakland Raiders as part of them.
Here's a small excerpt from the book I'm writing.
Teasers
A teaser wager is one where you can adjust the spreads of several games in a parlay by a fixed number of points, but receive a different payout.
For example, consider these two plays:
Cowboys -6.5 (with a moneyline of -270)
Redskins -6.5 (with a moneyline of -270)
In NFL, a 2-team 6-point teaser typically pays at -110. This means you pick 2 teams, adjust the spread 6 points in your favor, win $100 for each $110 risked if both games win.
In this example, your teaser wager would be Cowboys -0.5 as the first leg, and Redskins -0.5 as the second leg. If you win both, your $110 pays out $100.
Compare this to a parlay of the two games. A parlay of two -270 favorites would pay
(370/270) * (370/270), or odds of -114. Although this play is nearly identical to the teaser, you are now risking $114 to win $100. You will frequently find value in the NFL playing teasers that cross the "3" and/or "7".
Here is a retail teaser payoff chart:
Basketball 4 Pts 4.5 Pts 5 Pts
Football 6 Pts 6.5 Pts 7 Pts
2 Teams -110 -120 -130
3 Teams +180 +160 +140
4 Teams +300 +250 +200
5 Teams +450 +400 +350
6 Teams +600 +550 +500
How do you figure out the breakeven win rate for a teasers? Algebra, of course!
Let P be the odds of winning a single leg. In a "N" leg teaser with odds O, your net win must equal your net loss. So
(P^N) * O = (1 - P^N)
OP^N + P^N = 1
P^N ((O+1) = 1
P^N = 1 / (O+1)
P = Nth root of (1 / O+1)
For a 4-team 6-point teaser
P = 4th root of (1/1+3)
= 4th root of (0.25)
= 0.707 = 70.7%
This formula works for any parlay, teaser or pleaser.
When evaluating teasers, you want to look at how much you gain from the teaser points versus how much your breakeven percentage increases. For example, in a 4-team 6-point NFL teaser, your breakeven percentage is 70.7%. If each leg gains at least 20.7% in the cover rate from the teaser points, that leg of the teaser has +EV.
Yeah, Justin, I think you should write that book. Who cares what all those whiny girls were arguing a while back.
JUSTIN,what the hell are you doing to us. Listen I am lost all I know when I bet a 2 or 3 team teasers the vig is different than a regular bet a regular bet in football is 110 to win 100 or if your book is a piece of shit you give him 110 and make your bet lets say the pats 20 times on a regular bet you get 100 back, or if he takes your 110 he gives you 210 back. Now to make thing easy lets say you need not to give him anything up front. On a teaser its cost 120 to win a hundred 10 dollars more in vig or juice, what the big difference is on a two game teaser you get 6 and one half points and on a three game teaser you get 9 points. forget the algebra, the only thing I liked aboutthat class I was next to the window in cold winters the sun would blast in and it was good for sleeping. All kidding aside great job explaining that to us .
Ground breaking stuff Justin, this generation's Stanford WongOriginally Posted by Justin7
I only just started betting +EV teasers this year and you are planing to be Stanford Wong 2.0
Everyone with half a brain knows this. I worked it out once I found out about teasers from a friend who bet Wong style.
Been playing them since the EVEN MONEY days at the LAS VEGAS CLUB in Vegas.
Nothing to my recollection ever topped the ABC ISLAND teasers..........if you thought 6PT EVEN money 2-team teasers were nice, how would you like 7PT EVEN money and/or -110 teasers with TIES WIN!?!?
These could be manupulated in such a way that one could have had ZERO risk week in and week out playing these if they chose to go that route.
Yeah those ABC teasers were a beautiful thing, then everyone started talking about them on the forums, educating others.
please post here more often!!!
Where you been?
[IMG]http://www.****************.com/images/statusicon/post_old.gif[/IMG] 12-12-2009, 12:57 PM
Basic strategy teaser update
Those blindly betting B.S. teasers haven't been doing very well of late. Here's the stats from 1994-2009 (through week 13). Database size 4077, closing lines by Don Best.
RD+1.5 to +2.5, 205-81-0 for 71.7%
HD+1.5 to +2.5, 151-59-0 for 71.9%
Subtotal 356-140-0 for 71.8%
RF-7.5 to -8.5, 47-23-0 for 67.1%
HF-7.5 to -8.5, 177-61-2 for 74.4%
Subtotal 224-84-2 for 72.7%
Total all B.S. teasers 580-224-2 for 72.1% (BE at -110 is 72.4%)
The only subset worthwhile is the HF-7.5 to -8.5. Suggestion, expand this subset to include HF-7 to -9, you now get 382-127-21 for 75% (with many more candidates to chose from).
I'd be remiss if I didn't include my favorite non-basic strategy teaser subset RD+4.5 to +6. Over this same time frame they've went 338-115-2 for 74.6% (they do have a respectable ATS of 53.2%, but that only gives +EV of 1.6% at -110 compared to the +6.2% for the tease at -110). So far this year they've been absolutely on fire at 18-2 for 90% (any doubters, go ahead and check), but of course that percentage is unsustainable going forward. But still....
Thinking about teasing totals? Here's some interesting data (actually an anomaly), ATS, Overs 2001, Unders 2001, pushes 75
Overs teased 6 points 2746-1267-64 for 68.4%
Under teased 6 points 2649-1374-54 for 65.8%
So, unless you have a very compelling reason I'd avoid teasing NFL totals.
I posted the above at another forum last week. When I say BS teasers, that means Wongs teasers that capture the 3 and 7.
4th grade algebra is groundbreaking?
I'd consider it 7th grade math. Nothing ground-breaking, but most people don't know or don't care.
That was none other than Fishead who wouldn't shut his hole about those.
Looks like I was a year late to the party.
The party's still going. Plenty of other opportunities are still there.
Esp if you have locals with certain games 1-2 points off market, making your 6 point teasers 7-8 points effectively, golden.
no way really?
the important thing to remember is that while the spread is a bet on the median outcome of an event, teasers are bets on the distribution of the event
billthecop didn't mention 3+legs
he also didn't mention places were ties win
he also didn't mention getting the extra half point/point at different shops
the party is still going... it just takes a little work
Find a book that offers open teasers, and negotiate the longest possible time window with them.
There are many profitable applications of teasers. In addition to Wong teasers, I would look at 13 pt teasers for, among others, favorites of 14 pts and higher. The reason that people lose with teasers is that they think the free points take the place of good capping. As such, they may feel slighted when their pick covers the spread without the teased points. The key to winning teasers is to thoroughly understand that you can't afford a single bad pick. That is where the extended time window of open teasers comes in.
You're writing a book, Justin? Cool!
Me too. Although not about sports betting. lol
I look forward to your book! Make it juicy.
Those that are using TAMPA LOCALS(McIrish) on this forum are doing very well with teasers, I can guarantee you that.
teasers kill. because some days teams just tank. or like me you just cant get lucky on that one bet to make them all work.
Show me one high roller that plays teasers. Bottom line. They do not. All of you small bettors can use any system you want. The facts are indisputable. You are giving away too much in the way of odds. Go ahead and play your silly little mathematical games. Again, you are missing the bottom line. You either know what you are doing or you do not. It is that simple. If my system is better than yours, I am going to take money from you. Not the book. You. If your system is better than mine,then you are going to take money from me. Sports gaming broken down to it's simplist terms. You against me with the book acting as the broker. It is that simple.
ur in the wrong forum
Justin7, Thremp, many others that have any clue
Correct. It is INDISPUTABLE that Wong Teasers have been and continue to be +EV.
You are out of your league in this forum son, or just too stubborn to face facts.
Teasers work when the half point hook falls to your advantage.
You have to make sure the line you land on is, for example, +10 when ties push or +10.5 in superteasers when ties lose. in football don't bet a teaser where you're only +9.5 or +6.5.
The teaser arranged has to push you over the hump of the common score differentials.
Multi-League, Multi-Day.. properly setup where one loss won't wipe you out.
Those who say teasers are a suckers bet "because" you need 2,3,or 4 things to happen
are not seeing the big picture. You're always going to bet again ANYWAY.
You can bet SU or buy points and you still need more than one thing to happen because you're ALWAYS going to bet the next day.
That being said, they are only part of the scheme in my opinion.. one should only tease taking all other factors into consideration .. you can't get lazy, not do your research and expect teasers to make you consistent bank on a purely mathematical basis.
one hell of a post right there.
Good thread though.
when do we start talking pleasers?
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