[kevraid]

Does anyone invest by odds alone? Where you see a line and automatically bet that situation

For example at the place I invest(not sure if i am allowed to say name of site) I have tried a system.
Its soccer and you take any home team at pickem-175 or more on pointspread alone where draw gets your $$ back.
Now on my site the max line I have seen is -250. Its working thru 360 results... resuls are wins and losses...

So does anyone have a system in any sport where they look at the line or odds alone???

Thanx

[gui_m_p]

Does anyone invest by odds alone? Where you see a line and automatically bet that situation

For example at the place I invest(not sure if i am allowed to say name of site) I have tried a system.
Its soccer and you take any home team at pickem-175 or more on pointspread alone where draw gets your $$ back.
Now on my site the max line I have seen is -250. Its working thru 360 results... resuls are wins and losses...

So does anyone have a system in any sport where they look at the line or odds alone???

Thanx

Sorry, but what makes you believe those plays would be +ev if you are justing looking the lines?

[kevraid]

Its about percentages. I realize I cant go undefeated. So my thought before I started is that 75% of 500 results
would not lose at home. Now thru 360 results its 67.5% winners. My bankroll allows me to be a $5 and This system has me
at +$61.27... So you can see what a $10 $20 or $100 bettor would be up.

BUT my question is do people have a system in any sport where they bet by odds situation alone??? Also not every game on my site
has pick em pointspread. So if other sites have over -275 or more on pt spread lines then things would have to change. I get
the investment as soon as I see it as it sometimes changes to -.5 which makes it not qualify

[suicidekings]

BUT my question is do people have a system in any sport where they bet by odds situation alone???

The assumption that the books are consistently giving you value on home favourites is a horrible one, generally speaking. They don't tend to do that for any sport. And seeing as you have no idea what the fair line is for any of these games, you have no basis for comparison as to whether you're getting a good price or not.

Based on the numbers you gave (243W, 117L, +$61.27), and assuming you're flat betting to win $5 per game, your average odds bet are -197. That's a breakeven win % of 66.33% and your win rate is 67.5%. Being up $61.27 is fine, but remember you've wagered 360 * $5 * 1.97 = $3546 to get it. Standard deviation for your dataset as listed above is $67.7 and your Z-score is 0.905, so you're operating well within expected variance. Kind of like flipping a coin, getting a few more heads than tails and calling it a profitable system...

[onemoregoal]

hes cracked the code.

[inrenokid]

No, maybe somtyhing along the line of home underdog etc. Your system is chalk, you made 360 five dollar bets and are up 61 dollars that is very risky. Unless those % s are written in stone one small drop.and you.will be.out. you risked 1800 to make 60? You are laying - 3000

[kevraid]

The assumption that the books are consistently giving you value on home favourites is a horrible one, generally speaking. They don't tend to do that for any sport. And seeing as you have no idea what the fair line is for any of these games, you have no basis for comparison as to whether you're getting a good price or not.

Based on the numbers you gave (243W, 117L, +$61.27), and assuming you're flat betting to win $5 per game, your average odds bet are -197. That's a breakeven win % of 66.33% and your win rate is 67.5%. Being up $61.27 is fine, but remember you've wagered 360 * $5 * 1.97 = $3546 to get it. Standard deviation for your dataset as listed above is $67.7 and your Z-score is 0.905, so you're operating well within expected variance. Kind of like flipping a coin, getting a few more heads than tails and calling it a profitable system...

Thank you. I am risking $5 a game... So do you think its a 50/50 chance and I just happen to be ahead now? 243-117 is correct... Is there something others do that get a higher z score that is an actual system on any sport? How do you figure out what you need to be proiftable,like if I changed it to -170 to -200 or whatever I wanted to change to. If I could change the average from -197 on avg to lower then what % would I need. at -197 I need 66.33% to break even.

Do you know an automatic profitable system?

[kevraid]

No, maybe somtyhing along the line of home underdog etc. Your system is chalk, you made 360 five dollar bets and are up 61 dollars that is very risky. Unless those % s are written in stone one small drop.and you.will be.out. you risked 1800 to make 60? You are laying - 3000

-3000 over 360 bets...I get your point. and My plan when i started was a 500 result test. But that was an example of what I am doing.
The original question was is there a system that anyone has tried with success where you look at a line and location of the game and make a pick off that. Its ok if the answer is no

[kevraid]

hes cracked the code.

I knew I am retiring now lol

[gui_m_p]

The original question was is there a system that anyone has tried with success where you look at a line and location of the game and make a pick off that. Its ok if the answer is no

If you haven't another information/data than the line, no.

[kevraid]

Ev seems so subjective the probability of winning. I believe over a large sample size like 500 or 1000 or more that odss makers actually do thier job. Seems like -175+ home favorite will win closer to 70% than 66.3%... I also believe the -197 avg is higher than it will be over time. But thats why you test. So its my ev I guess and cant really go broke investing 2% cuz you can always stop. 244-118 +$58.90 before today.
If anyone has a system by odds they think will work then post. And its just 1 part of my portfolio.


Thanks,

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Ev seems so subjective the probability of winning. I believe over a large sample size like 500 or 1000 or more that odss makers actually do thier job.

Yes, no question they do. You can take the implied probability over a large sample and it's dead on.

The aim is to pick those smaller number of spots where they are inaccurate.

[kevraid]

Finding value in a group seems easier than finding value in a particular game...
Thinking that in a soccer pointspread where a home team is +1 with even odds up to +150 might have value in results.
Question will that home team win/draw MORE times than it loses by 2+ hmmmmmm... Might need a 500 result test on that.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Finding value in a group seems easier than finding value in a particular game...
Thinking that in a soccer pointspread where a home team is +1 with even odds up to +150 might have value in results.
Question will that home team win/draw MORE times than it loses by 2+ hmmmmmm... Might need a 500 result test on that.

The price for that spread was calculated with reference to the moneyline, so unless they've done something very badly wrong you're unlikely to get anything much there.

[kevraid]

The price for that spread was calculated with reference to the moneyline, so unless they've done something very badly wrong you're unlikely to get anything much there.

I am not sure I understand... In the moneyline its win loss draw. With pointspread line you choose one of 2 out comes. So are you saying
that you believe that it will be about 50/50 that the away team would win by 2+

Thanx

[HeeeHAWWWW]

No, think of it like this: moneyline, totals and spreads are massively inter-related. You're looking for ways to exploit that relationship, but it's already been done - it's the way they make those prices in the first place.

[kevraid]

No, think of it like this: moneyline, totals and spreads are massively inter-related. You're looking for ways to exploit that relationship, but it's already been done - it's the way they make those prices in the first place.

OK I see that they are related so its believed over a 500 result period of time that the theory would be about evn proposition or less... but what about that guys question in another thread about baseball run line.

[kevraid]

I will periodically update records but Really I hope people share systems that are working for them... I use a college basketball system but hey its not time for that lol. I use the basebal streak system with 1% 2% 3% and for now its 22-28 -$23.89(these are $3 $6 $9 bets)...
For the most part I like to put same amount per game though. The Soccer one is 249-120 +$62.44 as $5 investor.

BUT I really want to know any system for any sport to add to portfolio. Always searching. Even if its snooker cricket or any other fringe sport ufc,horses,darts I do not discriminate