[usma1992]

I look statistically on a game like Oregon UCLA... the disparity between points scored and point allowed for each team is huge. So in that game... how do you determine whether it will be a defensive match up or and offensive matchup. If you have any insight... I am all ears. Too many times, I watch games that have two teams--one heavily defensive, one heavily offensive. The results seem to be 50/50% on whether it will be a high scoring game or a low scoring game. Dave

[tto827]

If only it were that simple....

If you're using the statistics to create models, well I can't really help you there.


If you're just looking at stats and attempting to cap games, while then it becomes matchups, etc. Maybe the good offensive team focuses on a hurry up offense, and the defense has 4 big down lineman that play every snap, that could become a issue for the defense later in the game.

No trend, stat, anything will ever make you money in this game. You must break down a game on an individual basis if you want to win.

[Semper Fidelis]

Yes, what tto said-football (especially college) more than any other sport seems hardest to tackle from a statistical standpoint. I don't have much experience with statistics-in fact MLB and NHL are probaby the only sports I use stats to make plays-but I do have experience with football (my best sport by far). In football it's honestly all about matchups. Where basketball and other sports are more about individual matchups, football is more about strategies and formations (from an entire team perspective) and such. The example tto used is perfect-how does UCLA's defense stack up against a hurry-up offense and what effect does keeping the same defensive line in have on everything? Just like how certain QBs are better against blitzing defenses (scramblers such as Johnny Manziel, etc), certain defenses are more effective against spread offenses and such. I know all of this is common knowledge and stuff you already know/think about in capping your plays, but maybe someone from a more statistical background can give some more info. All I can say is I base my capping on matchups (both individual and team) as well as motivation, rivalries, meaning, etc. Just remember it is much more common for huge upsets in football (especially college) than other sports. Remember these games are more like chess matches where coaches are constantly having to design/change their schemes in preparation for and during the actual games at halftime, as opposed to a sport like baseball where the only things you really have to manage are a pitcher's pitches and defensive lineup in the field, etc. Very interested to see what others have to say, especially those with a more statistical background!

[Semper Fidelis]

And before someone misreads my post and is offended or whatever-I'm not saying there is less strategy involved with sports like basketball and baseball as opposed to football. I'm merely saying it's harder to quantify football statistically than it is with other sports. At least it seems that way to me, that football (especially college) is more susceptible to the intangibles to the extent that it can skew stats.