Originally Posted by
MikeTizzy
game info, and amount money on either side of market moves lines one way or another. This i know for sure. But usually the game dynamics within that specific game and the edges whichever side has, doesnt usually correlate at all to the lines itself. A perfect example i have in mlb. D'backs Miley whenever he faces the Padres, always always get hit hard by most if not all of their hitters and hardly ever fairs well, as in odds are stacked against him. The final scores always correlate this dynamic as well, you look them up if u like. But the thing is, the lines always move towards the D'backs and the last matchup he had vs the Pads, i believe it closed at -175 @home. And once again he and D'backs lost. So how aren't the padres favored at least a bit in this matchup?? What i find to be true is, lines have no correlation to the highest probable outcomes, and very few trends actually exist as facts. I take a game by game approach, and only track what metrics and stats that are relevant to that specific game, and apply new intangibles if needed. use my IQ of the game at hand. This i found to be most successful for sure. So what im suggesting is, dont waste ur time of tracking those data. Line movements is for marketing purposes, and to adjust info coming into that specific game. Thats pretty much it.