[wizcodlifa]

So i am basically learning and studying everyday, i would like to attempt to master this topic, or at least become very familiar with it. Will someone please tell me what to look at with line movements? What a big movement means? Based on how many people are on one side, and percentage on one side?

PLEASE HELP

[husky]

I have always been interested in this question. It seems like some believe line movement is an art and is the only way to profit, while others say line movement means nothing. Then there are reverse line movements, however, can one trust ANY public betting % sites?

[wizcodlifa]

anyone here to help a bettor out??

[JR007]

well, you have to look at a point where line movement, kills the value, two points or more, I tend to fade or pass, but I would advise keeping a running record of say for example ncaa football, forget nfl, too small a sample size, you have to think "contrarian"

[Husker36]

So i am basically learning and studying everyday, i would like to attempt to master this topic, or at least become very familiar with it. Will someone please tell me what to look at with line movements? What a big movement means? Based on how many people are on one side, and percentage on one side?

PLEASE HELP

To answer your question..... a line changes when more money is being placed on one side than the other. The casinos want even money on each game. Last night.... Denver started as a -14 favorite and the line changed to -16 at game time. This is because most of the money was going on Denver last night. RLM is REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT. This is where more BETS are being place on one side but more MONEY is being placed on the other side. Example- you see online that 66% of the bets are on the Jets but the line changes from Jets-7 to Jets -5.5. RLM is an interesting thing to watch. I've studied line changes for years. Other than RLM, I haven't really found one trend that helps out. If you like Central Michigan and they open at -7 then go to -8 and -9 do you back off because the line changed against you? Or do you like that people agree with you. If you like Mich State at -10 and then the line changes to -9 and then -8 you might ask yourself why people are betting on the other team. People say fade the public, the public are square betters, etc. Hope that helps.

[Husker36]

I like to keep an eye on the "smaller schools" line movements. Notre Dame, Florida, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Ohio State, etc..... the public are betting on those big games. What does the general public know about Texas State, South Dakota State, etc. So when I see the line change on a game that the public isn't betting I take notice. If Texas State starts off at -12 and goes to -14.5 I'm taking a look at betting on them! Somebody knows something about that game!

[DoYouNotGetIT]

Basically I will put this into the simplest/generalist terms that may not apply to all situations. So don't wanna hear how I am wrong. These are the basics.

NFL: When a line moves in the NFL take it with a grain of salt, because the public or sharps are just as likely to move a line since the public bets so much on the NFL now. Only thing with the NFL with line movements is that 15.9% of NFL games are decided by exactly 3 points and 9.5% of NFL games are decided by 7 points. So there is some value if you can get a 2.5 and 3.5 line or a 6.5 and 7.5 line with the same -110 VIG.

NCAAB, NCAAF, and NBA: Major line movements in these sports on unpopular teams are almost always caused by sharps and usually win by a larger spread even if the sharps stop betting . For example the sharps last week bet Georgia Tech vs. UNC all the way up from -3 to -6.5 then the public went up to -7. Georgia Tech won by 8 points. NCAAB and NCAAF are considered the easiest sports to bet and NBA is considered the hardest sport to bet.

MLB: I don't bet baseball, but most people who do successfully use some type of computer algorithm/computer program that advises them on betting. MLB is considered easier than NBA, because NBA is more random (many if not most people will disagree with this statement, but most sharps will not).

I gamble for fun aka I lose money gambling, but those are the basics. I am not gonna lie like some people on here who will talk about how much of a sharp they are even though they are gambling less than $2,000 on games weekly or they will just flat out lie about how much they gamble/ what picks they gamble on. Successful rich gamblers aren't wasting their time posting on a forum constantly. They might in the beginning, but they eventually stop. 2+2 forum for Poker Players has proven this theory time and time again.

[TheMoneyShot]

So i am basically learning and studying everyday, i would like to attempt to master this topic, or at least become very familiar with it. Will someone please tell me what to look at with line movements? What a big movement means? Based on how many people are on one side, and percentage on one side?

PLEASE HELP

There's really only one logical way to wager with line movement that has a high success rate. First, you need a reputable website that tells you where the PUBLIC money is on... which direction. Let me give you an example:

Let's say the Cleveland Browns are at Indianapolis Colts and the line is Indianapolis -7.5. Now, check all of your reputable websites that show where the Public Money is coming in at. Oh, it's on Indianapolis -7.5 at 82%. We're about 15 minutes from game time... and mysteriously the line shifts to Indianapolis -7. But the money is still coming in at 82%. Then the line shifts to Indianapolis -6.5... the average gambler will hammer Indy -6.5 because it looks to good to be true. But, clearly you know the money flow is on Indy 82% the line typically shouldn't be coming down. 9 out of 10 times this is a good sign... and you should quickly get on Cleveland +6.5

That's just one way of understanding line movement.

[DoYouNotGetIT]

There's really only one logical way to wager with line movement that has a high success rate. First, you need a reputable website that tells you where the PUBLIC money is on... which direction. Let me give you an example:

Let's say the Cleveland Browns are at Indianapolis Colts and the line is Indianapolis -7.5. Now, check all of your reputable websites that show where the Public Money is coming in at. Oh, it's on Indianapolis -7.5 at 82%. We're about 15 minutes from game time... and mysteriously the line shifts to Indianapolis -7. But the money is still coming in at 82%. Then the line shifts to Indianapolis -6.5... the average gambler will hammer Indy -6.5 because it looks to good to be true. But, clearly you know the money flow is on Indy 82% the line typically shouldn't be coming down. 9 out of 10 times this is a good sign... and you should quickly get on Cleveland +6.5

That's just one way of understanding line movement.

Yes all this is true, but for beginner that is really hard to figure out also it is really hard to figure out what games sharps are betting on. For example last week the public and sharps were on: Green Bay and the over also Vikings and the under. 3 out of the four of those bets lost. You also have games that change in value just because of public betting like Denver vs. Oakland or Seattle vs. Jaguars. That is why I said NCAAB, NCAAF, and NBA unpopular team game line movements are almost always caused by sharps, because the amount of people that care about the non-top teams in those sports is very few. What I mean by popular teams in NCAAB, NCAAF, and NBA are Miami Heat, Duke basketball, Alabama football, LSU football, Ohio State (both), LA Lakers, Kansas basketball, and Syracuse basketball in most of these games that these teams are involved in lines will be moved by the public.

Also Wizcodlifa don't worry about people talking about square and sharp bets guaranteed there were people posting about how the Vikings and Green Bay were square bets when in fact the sharps also bet on Vikings and Green Bay. Most people just like saying every winning bet they make is a sharp bet even if it wasn't.

[figue]

Art of Watching Line Movements

» Posted on 03/15/2010

Art of Watching Line Movements

There is an art to sports betting that involves a large amount of skill and some luck. You should never be betting on sports with the intent to make money if you don’t feel like you have the knowledge within that sport. Despite having this knowledge and knowing the stats, there is still an art. This is the art of prediction! More specifically we are talking about your ability to interpret statistics and situations to make the right decision. If you can become a pro at watching the line movements and acting before they actually do move, you can find some real value in most of your bets.

Line Movements?
In a previous article we discuss what line movements actually mean. So hopefully by now you know what a line movement is. As a brief summary, a line movement is the movement of odds as variables change. The bookies keep their odds in a constant state of flux, able to change them at a moments notice. These variables can include injury, weather, players and other bettors.

The Art of Watching Line Movements
As we discussed above, there are in fact a huge range of factors that will effect the line movement. How bookies will react to certain news or situations is often fairly predictable. Your job is to predict what will happen ahead of the bookies. So, for example, say it is known that the quarterback is injured and there is a big game coming up – he may or may not make it. It is your job to predict whether he will or not, how fit he will be if he does, and what bearing that will have on the game.

If you guess right you get to cash in on odds far in advance to that of what you will get if you wait for the news to be released – because the bookies will react as soon as the news is known (and often before).

This is the most basic form of watching line movements for profit. But the main skill comes in understanding how lines will move from people's perceptions of news and events. If you know how people will react then you can predict when the best time to place a bet will be. And that is where the profit is made. Line movements can actually make big differences on the odds that bookies are offering – so by understanding how people will make the line change, and waiting for the optimal moment, you can get the best odds for a bet.

Take over/under betting as an example. Games in wet and cold weather tend to be under – so that is always a good bet to make. But if the forecast is wet and cold everyone will be betting on unders. However if you know the forecast includes a dry day at some point before the game then you may also have noticed that when this happens more bets get made on the over – especially in mid-afternoon. This means that mid-afternoon on the dry day you are best placed to make the bet of under, making you more money if it comes in than if you had done it in a wet evening.

There are far more complex examples that demonstrate the art of line movement watching. But from our examples above you can certainly see that this is a powerful tool and is something every sports bettor should understand. Lines move and if you understand why the lines are moving you will feel more confident and often times make smarter bets!

[figue]

What do Line Movements mean?

When you are trying to win money in sports betting, line movements are something that you should be paying special attention to. Now you should be aware that a 'line' is simply the odds on the bet that the bookie is offering. Any bet with odds is said to be the line.

What Line Movement Really Means
So what does line movement mean? The meaning is very simply the alteration in betting odds for whatever reason. Odds are not set in stone but are in fact fluid things that bookies will often change as more information on the game comes in. So the line movement is the change in odds from one offering to another.

Of course knowing the meaning of the phrase 'line movement' is of little value by itself. Far more important to anyone betting is understanding why they move, what causes such trends and seeing if they can use such information to their own betting advantages.

So let us take a look at what causes line movement.

The bookies have inside information
This is the big one. Almost all bookies will have someone on the inside of top teams feeding them information. It can be on a huge number of variables, all of which will effect the line movement. For example it could be:

• They know the starting line up before it is published
• They know if a player is injured, or returning from injury ahead of schedule
• Any inside troubles such as fighting amongst teammates

And much, much more. The bookies almost always have more inside information than any bettor has access to. This means that they are able to cause line movement ahead of any information going public, so that they are not going to get caught behind the public.

For instance if they know that a star quarterback were injured for a big NFL football game, but it was not yet public news, they would move their line to lengthen the odds for that team. They would do this ahead of any public announcement to stop those who have heard rumors from taking advantage of the oppositions better odds prior to the move.

A Number of Bets
Another factor to effect the line movement is the amount being bet – both in number and in size of bets. If there is a large amount of betting going on one side of the line one of two things will happen. The bookies will believe that they have missed some information and lengthen the odds. Or, the bookies will mitigate the risk of so many bets by lessening the odds.

So how popular a bet is has a direct relationship with the line movement of a bet. In live betting of course there is far more movement of the line – simply because there is so much going on at any one time that can have a direct impact on the outcome of a game.


What Does This Mean to You?
There are a number of tactics that involve following line movements in betting. It could be that you will follow the line, betting on the side that is decreasing in odds believing that you can still get the jump. You believe the odds are moving for a reason and that the line will continue to shorten.

This is as valid as any other betting system because often it will be that the shortening of the odds means that any value from the bet has gone, especially if you had already placed a bet on that game with different odds. You should carefully consider such movements.

Another tactic is to follow the line movement and as soon as you see a movement in one bookie you hunt out another that hasn't started to move. This is potentially very profitable but it does rely on line movements to be happening for a reason, not because bettors have decided to favor one team over another (which happens a lot, often for very little reason).

As always, with betting it is best that you understand what you feel the best odds are and ensure that you hit them. Settling for odds you think are a risk almost always are a risk, no matter what the movement. Knowing how line movements work is just one of the many weapons needed to become a great sports bettor.

[easyliving]

What do Line Movements mean?

When you are trying to win money in sports betting, line movements are something that you should be paying special attention to. Now you should be aware that a 'line' is simply the odds on the bet that the bookie is offering. Any bet with odds is said to be the line.

What Line Movement Really Means
So what does line movement mean? The meaning is very simply the alteration in betting odds for whatever reason. Odds are not set in stone but are in fact fluid things that bookies will often change as more information on the game comes in. So the line movement is the change in odds from one offering to another.

Of course knowing the meaning of the phrase 'line movement' is of little value by itself. Far more important to anyone betting is understanding why they move, what causes such trends and seeing if they can use such information to their own betting advantages.

So let us take a look at what causes line movement.

The bookies have inside information
This is the big one. Almost all bookies will have someone on the inside of top teams feeding them information. It can be on a huge number of variables, all of which will effect the line movement. For example it could be:

• They know the starting line up before it is published
• They know if a player is injured, or returning from injury ahead of schedule
• Any inside troubles such as fighting amongst teammates

And much, much more. The bookies almost always have more inside information than any bettor has access to. This means that they are able to cause line movement ahead of any information going public, so that they are not going to get caught behind the public.

For instance if they know that a star quarterback were injured for a big NFL football game, but it was not yet public news, they would move their line to lengthen the odds for that team. They would do this ahead of any public announcement to stop those who have heard rumors from taking advantage of the oppositions better odds prior to the move.

A Number of Bets
Another factor to effect the line movement is the amount being bet – both in number and in size of bets. If there is a large amount of betting going on one side of the line one of two things will happen. The bookies will believe that they have missed some information and lengthen the odds. Or, the bookies will mitigate the risk of so many bets by lessening the odds.

So how popular a bet is has a direct relationship with the line movement of a bet. In live betting of course there is far more movement of the line – simply because there is so much going on at any one time that can have a direct impact on the outcome of a game.


What Does This Mean to You?
There are a number of tactics that involve following line movements in betting. It could be that you will follow the line, betting on the side that is decreasing in odds believing that you can still get the jump. You believe the odds are moving for a reason and that the line will continue to shorten.

This is as valid as any other betting system because often it will be that the shortening of the odds means that any value from the bet has gone, especially if you had already placed a bet on that game with different odds. You should carefully consider such movements.

Another tactic is to follow the line movement and as soon as you see a movement in one bookie you hunt out another that hasn't started to move. This is potentially very profitable but it does rely on line movements to be happening for a reason, not because bettors have decided to favor one team over another (which happens a lot, often for very little reason).

As always, with betting it is best that you understand what you feel the best odds are and ensure that you hit them. Settling for odds you think are a risk almost always are a risk, no matter what the movement. Knowing how line movements work is just one of the many weapons needed to become a great sports bettor.

good read

[gojetsgomoxies]

OP, i am also interested in the subject..... thank you for starting thread.

it wasn`t easy to find and probably someone here pointed the way but teamrankings.com keeps track of movements of lines and o/u and how the worked out.

line movements seem like they've been very large this year... i get the idea that lots of betters watch forums like this and others for people early leans and then people pile into that pick.

this forum seemed to love Rice in general... they were playing kansas which is fade team around here (not as strong as the love for rice though)..... game opened rice -2 vs kansas (can't remember home/road). went to minus 6 or 7 by game time.

if you bet hundreds of games the difference between betting -2 and -6 or -7 is going to be big. probably more than 5% (and you are trying to beat 50%, with probably a max of 60%).

as a principle, i wont bet games where i like a team but it's moved alot of points

i think the idea is that the big movements are effiicient. i..e betting rice -2 was really good value.

two more things:

theory called reverse line movement.... most of the public bets penn state, but the line moves against penn state (opposite of what you'd think should happen)..... why? because a few very smart large betters (google "billy walters" if you don't know of him) are playing pennstates opponent (hawaii say)... penn state/hawaii is purely hypothetical... there is a thread on this subject. doing well recently. alot of interpretation and data source qeustions though

lastly, a guy had a thread a few years ago on playing U/O movements on obscure games. seemed to do really reallly well. not sure what happened to it... theory being that people close to troy state, idaho, MTSU etc. programs know far more about them than almost any other betters. that is not true of penn state, tennessee, ucla etc.. those teams are watched very very closely by a huge number of people.

hope that helps.... i may resurrect the guy's idea on obscure teams.

[SteveRyan]

No mention of key numbers?