1. 08-12-13 03:10 PM #1
    mebaran
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    NFL Model Average Error

    So this off-season I've been tinkering again with NFL modeling (), and after creating a ranking system I'm happy with that finally incorporates strength of schedule (hundreds of iterations per week), I've gotten very close to bettering the opening lines. The average error of my model over three seasons of out of sample data (in points) is 11.08 from the actual game outcome. Depending on the season, this represents a comparable line to the opener.

    Albeit a fairly simple ranking process for now, I can't help but feel like this has value in some regard...and that carrot is once again dangling in front of my face: "How do I shave that extra half-point or so to ACTUALLY better the openers?"

    For what it's worth, I am not using play-by-play in my model as of right now. So would it be reasonable to assume that without p-b-p data, this is about as low of an avg. error I will get?

    Any brains to pick on this? Maybe someone who modeled NFL fairly extensively before play-by-play data started being used?

    Thanks.
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  2. 08-12-13 03:40 PM #2
    C-Gold
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    You are wasting your time.
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  3. 08-12-13 03:59 PM #3
    mebaran
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    Quote Originally Posted by C-Gold View Post
    You are wasting your time.
    As in you can't beat openers anymore? Or you can't beat them without vastly bigger databases than I have with just game stats? I've heard this before, and agree wholeheartedly that NFL ATS models are pipe dreams, yet there are still people who consistently do well.

    If my goal is purely academic (ok, ok....95% academic as this subject is interesting to me regardless of final outcome) is it still a waste of time?

    Otherwise....time to work on a German handball model, perhaps?
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  4. 08-12-13 05:05 PM #4
    C-Gold
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    Look at Jeff Saragin's ratings and save your time.
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  5. 08-12-13 05:31 PM #5
    a4u2fear
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    Don't know how to help meb, but pretty much the answer you'll get around here is that no one who posts here could ever be smart enough to figure out a winning method, because they themselves cannot
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  6. 08-13-13 12:33 AM #6
    Peregrine Stoop
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Don't know how to help meb, but pretty much the answer you'll get around here is that no one who posts here could ever be smart enough to figure out a winning method, because they themselves cannot
    nope. anyone smart enough to do this is smart enough to not share.
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