[camicazi]

I am new to this forum and have been impressed with the discussions raised in respect to Sports Betting.

By way of explanation, I live in Australia where sports betting is in its infancy compared to the US. We have a particular "product" which can be wagered on known as Jockey Challenge Betting. In essence, this is run on selected horse race meetings where the winning jockey receives 3 points, 2nd place 2 points and 3rd place 1 point. Points are accumulated throughout a race meeting of usually 8 races and the winner is the Jockey with most points. You may have up to 8 markets open on any given day for 8 individual race meetings.

Markets are generally posted 2 hours before the first race and I consider them to be inefficient. I have my own market lines at around the same time. Markets will alter after the first and second races and close prior to the third race.

Each market has 7 quoted jockeys and a price for all other jockeys riding on the day (so 8 in total). For the "Other Jockeys" to win an individual jockey in that group must outscore all other jockeys on the day.

Ideally I will select and price 4 race meetings on a given day. I want to wager on all 4 meetings in single bets as well as 2x, 3x & 4x parlays. I want to place bets once market lines have moved as well.

So, my problem is how do I best implement Kelly Criterion?

I am running my markets on Excel and using Solver.

I have seen several posts that touch on parts of what I am trying to do but I am really looking for a overall plan of attack.

The main issues -

1/ Using Kelly on 4 silmantaneous race meetings
2/ Using Kelly for numerous parlay bets

Any assistance would be greatly appreciated.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Are these parimutuel wagers? Or fixed odds?

[camicazi]

These are fixed odds prices. Market moves do occur from opening. Major adjustments to markets after Race1 and Race 2.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Read the following threads and let us know what specific questions you have from there...

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...lest-case.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...readsheet.html

[camicazi]

Thanks Monkey for both links. I had come across them already are both are very useful. In particular the Line Change spreadsheet can be used to accomodate the massive market movements that occur.

In respect to the simultaneous-bet strategy my problem really lies with the following -

1/ You are likely to have more than one single bet per race meeting and they will not be priced the same
2/ You may have circumstances where jockeys outside your single bets are coupled in parlays (eg a large overlay coupled with 3 small underlays but EV+)

[RickySteve]

Set up a spreadsheet with probabilities of all possible outcomes and associated risk. Maximize expected growth. Ask your butler to fetch your silk slippers and a mint julep.