[a4u2fear]

Ok, so here my thinking. Every team in the playoffs is much more motivated than they would be in the regular season, no matter what the series line, game, or situation, each game "should" bring the highest motivation out of a team.

So here's the playoff stats (these years are only ones at my disposal):
08: H goals/gm = 2.79
A goals/gm = 2.55
Difference = .24

09: H goals/gm = 2.95
A goals/gm = 2.53
Difference = .42

10: H goals/gm = 2.94
A goals/gm = 3.02
Difference = -.08

11: H goals/gm = 2.77
A goals/gm = 2.72
Difference = .05

12: H goals/gm = 2.34
A goals/gm = 2.44
Difference = -.10

So, I wanted to see how these playoff teams fared in the regular season, but to remove the variance of the "bad or non-playoff teams", I found the same stats as above, but only when any of the 16 playoff teams played each other, from Feb 1 and on (teams at the end of the year are playing more like they would be in the playoffs)

So here's the regular season stats of the playoff teams vs each other (was about 130 gms/year):
08: H goals/gm = 2.72
A goals/gm = 2.28
Difference = .44

09: H goals/gm = 3.06
A goals/gm = 2.71
Difference = .35

10: H goals/gm = 2.99
A goals/gm = 2.74
Difference = .25

11: H goals/gm = 2.62
A goals/gm = 2.78
Difference = .16

12: H goals/gm = 2.86
A goals/gm = 2.40
Difference = .46

So, comparing the difference in goals scored in regular season vs playoffs:
08: difference in goals decreased from .44 to .24 = .20
09: difference in goals increased from .35 to .42 = -.07
10: difference in goals decreased from .25 to -.08 = .33
11: difference in goals decreased from -.16 to .05 = .21
12: difference in goals decreased from .46 to -.10 = .56

which avg = .25 and median = .21. So am I way off, or onto something? That from my calculations, that the addition of a motivated team in the NHL is worth about .25 goals? Obviously other factors would contribute up or down, but I "think" this is a start.

Thoughts?

[a4u2fear]

Mods can you also tag this in hockey forum?

[terpkeg]

But aren't both teams equally motivated? Difference could be that more road teams pack it once they get down during the regular season. What is the difference in the ML home v. away team playoffs compared with regular season over same sample?

[a4u2fear]

But aren't both teams equally motivated? Difference could be that more road teams pack it once they get down during the regular season. What is the difference in the ML home v. away team playoffs compared with regular season over same sample?

ML is related to how the public will bet and expected results.
the data and results I posted are not related to any perception but the outcomes themselves.

you may bring up a good point that teams pack it in, but again, to me that sounds like my initial point that motivation is worth that .25 goals. Pack it in in reg season and not during playoffs. So if you know a team needs a game in reg season you could say they won't pack it in and will only be a .25 goal differential