[hockey07]

Hi guys, this is my first post and I had a quick question.

Before you tell me I'm a fool and read read read some of the other posts before I ask, I assure you that I read a lot on this site and had a question that I can't seem to find the answer to.

If I start with a bankroll of say 1k (I know it's small but it is all I have to lose without it hurting me) and I am betting on average 200 games per year at a success rate of 55%, do I re calculate my bankroll everyday (or before every bet) and put it into the Kelly calculator to see what my optimal bet is? The reason I ask is because i know bankroll management is a very big thing from what ive read, but when I use the kelly calculator I input 1 simultaneous event and 200 series of those events (hope you are still following me). If I am betting half kelly, it spits out numbers and that is fine, but does that mean I would bet that everytime? I know it changes as the odds change but if I am winning 55% then my bankroll will eventually rise if I manage my money properly, so it would make sense that my stake in each bet would rise too correct (and fall if I am down money)? This is probably really simple for you guys to answer and sorry if it is stupid.

Also, if I use the kelly calculator, how would my expected growth if I am betting on several different odds over the course of the year? All the bets are not -110. There may be no way to do this, but just another question for a newbie. Thanks a lot guys, I appreciate any input you would have.

[username474]

It's not a stupid question first off. The most basic and safest advice I can give is to stick to wagering 2% of BR per wager, at most 3.5% since it seems that you are very selective with only 200 plays a year. Move up your bet size after every 5 to 10 units won.

[Domestic]

Seems like a responsible bankroll and I like username474's advice.

[MrX]

Before you tell me I'm a fool and read read read some of the other posts before I ask, I assure you that I read a lot on this site and had a question that I can't seem to find the answer to.

We're not that harsh around here. Welcome to the forum.

If I start with a bankroll of say 1k (I know it's small but it is all I have to lose without it hurting me) and I am betting on average 200 games per year at a success rate of 55%, do I re calculate my bankroll everyday (or before every bet) and put it into the Kelly calculator to see what my optimal bet is?

Using Kelly, you would recalculate your bankroll before every bet.

The reason I ask is because i know bankroll management is a very big thing from what ive read, but when I use the kelly calculator I input 1 simultaneous event and 200 series of those events (hope you are still following me). If I am betting half kelly, it spits out numbers and that is fine, but does that mean I would bet that everytime? I know it changes as the odds change but if I am winning 55% then my bankroll will eventually rise if I manage my money properly, so it would make sense that my stake in each bet would rise too correct (and fall if I am down money)? This is probably really simple for you guys to answer and sorry if it is stupid.

You've got it right. You're bets will rise and fall with your bankroll.

One thing, though, if you've decided that your win% is 55% based on historical results of a bunch of wagers placed at various different odds, it would be a mistake to plug 55% into the Kelly calculator for all bets made at all odds.

For example, say you've made 500 bets at odds ranging from -135 to +115 with the average being -110 and you've hit at 55% and you assume that 55% is your expected win% going forward (a mistake, by the way). If you use the Kelly calculator for a bet you want to make at +110 and you leave the win% at 55% it's going to tell you to bet way too much.

[hockey07]

username and MrX, very very informative answers, thank you very much. MrX that makes a lot of sense what you said about a bet at +110 betting way too much. So, if 500 bets gave me a winnign percentage of 55% at all different odds ranging from -140 to +120 should I determine how often I win a +120 bet as opposed to a -140 bet and input each of those winning percentages into the calculator. I'm sure that would be the ideal way to go about it, but is that really possible? Thanks guys for your help.

[MrX]

username and MrX, very very informative answers, thank you very much. MrX that makes a lot of sense what you said about a bet at +110 betting way too much. So, if 500 bets gave me a winnign percentage of 55% at all different odds ranging from -140 to +120 should I determine how often I win a +120 bet as opposed to a -140 bet and input each of those winning percentages into the calculator. I'm sure that would be the ideal way to go about it, but is that really possible?

You'd probably run into a sample size issue trying to do it that way. Unless you have a strong reason to believe that you will perform better/worse at certain odds, you should calculate your overall edge (5% in this case) and use that in the Kelly calculator instead of winning% (see the dropdown choice for edge there?) Doing it that way will give you the proper $45 Kelly stake for +110 with a $1000 BR, instead of the insane $141 if you were to assume 55% at +110.

[hockey07]

very informative stuff mrX, can't thank you enough.