Originally Posted by
hutennis
The question is still unanswered though.
The assumption is that because we "know that he is a well known pitcher with good stats and a huge public acceptance that he will bring in alot of money especially if its a sunday night game were everyone is watching" the opening number (-190) is bound to go higher (to -210 or 220)
on that particular knowledge.
I question that assumption very much.
IMO, such a trivial information must be already priced in and -190 has to be already a shaded enough number designed to extract additional profit from unsophisticated players. To expect that -190 will go even higher simply due to the flow of squarer money alone would be pretty unwise.
Books can not do that. They can't simply raise the price on a favorite side alone. -190/+165 can not become -220/+165 all of a sudden.
At least, I have never seen such a development yet.
Plus side has to go up too bringing the odds to, let's say -210/+190.
In a absence of fundamental reasons for such a move, +190 will surly be a +EV side which will be hammered mercilessly and rapidly
by smart money.
So, a naive projection that public betting on its favorite pitcher will result in odds predictably moving higher is nothing more but a naive wishful thinking. In practice, books will be very happy to simply collect at overpriced -190 all day long or until real reasons to move the line will come in. But real reasons come randomly and thus are unpredictable.