[CrimsonTiger]

I'm curious how does one go about handicapping football games. What is your emphasis on? W/L records, PF/PA, yardage, creative stats like Yards per point. Do you do the same things for college and pro?
I've been doing this awhile and want to "start fresh." Basically forget everything I know (for now) and start over. Sometimes you do things and forget things that you used to do or over emphasize some things and forget to include some basic stuff. I don't do this with anybody just myself so I don't know how other people go about it. So I'd like to see how y'all go about it, so I can go back to basics and then gradually add stuff... Thanks!

[Easy-Rider 66]

I start by trying to guess the lines before they post them for the NFL. Do some research for injury updates, trends, and schedule factors. Basically look for value on where the line may be off imo. Personally, Like playing dogs that have a shot to win. It's a good deal having those points late in a close game. Handicapping is not an exact science that's for sure. It all comes down to one's personal opinion. GL.

[casanders86]

For college I start by looking for trap games. Example if Ohio State were playing Bowling Green State then Marshall and then on the road at say USC. I may want to take a hard a look at Marshall's team given that, only in college football, Ohio State WILL be looking ahead and thinking Marshall will be a walk game. Especially with an offense that (used to be, we'll see with Meyer) slow moving and a team that relied heavily on field position.

For pro I like to take teams the are at worst a decent team but the week prior their offense can't produce due to a D-Coordinator finding weaknesses / holes in the offense and o-coordinators playcalling. The public trends to bet heavily against the poor performing team but in reality the O-Coordinator truly gets great film to find weaknesses in his team and playcalling thus fixing it the next week. If that team plays a bad to decent team, I typically take that team to cover if they're dogs or take the m/l if they're favorites.

[GunShard]

My personal rules on sports gambling that could help you:

1. Bankroll money management and Kelly Criterion. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll. Be discipline.
Kelly Criterion basically says to bet large on -110 and bet small on -500, and bet large on a straight bet, bet small on a parlay bet.
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
"Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight;
whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted." -Sun Tzu, the Art of War
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww
9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.
17. Moneyline favorites are more likely to win than Moneyline underdogs. Favorited lines are juiced because of this reason.
18. Learn from your mistakes. Too many gamblers don't learn from their mistakes. That's why I am helping gamblers with this list.

[hutennis]

Just a few questios.

3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.

What if comeback is +880?
What line would you rather take - -105/-105 or -1000/+880?

4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.

What if a few weeks into season team is doing great and now you can lay them at 90 to 1 and you missed great sure bet?

11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.

Are not injuries news come in randomly?
What if not your team's player get injured and your odds skyrocket?

18. Learn from your mistakes.

Please do.

[jgilmartin]

GunShard,
You do not appear to understand juice. If you think of everything in terms of implied probability, it becomes a lot easier:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/

[CrimsonTiger]

Good stuff! Thanks. Keep it coming.
Seems not a lot of statistics but more what you see...

[GunShard]

Just a few questios.




What if comeback is +880?
What line would you rather take - -105/-105 or -1000/+880?



What if a few weeks into season team is doing great and now you can lay them at 90 to 1 and you missed great sure bet?



Are not injuries news come in randomly?
What if not your team's player get injured and your odds skyrocket?




Please do.

18. Don't insult me, you dumbass. Too many gamblers that don't learn from their mistakes. I was answering your questions until your trolling and disrespect.

I just deleted my 3 answers to your 3 questions just now. If you were smart, you wouldn't insulted me and your first 3 questions would be answered already. I don't tolerate trolls and stupid people.

[GunShard]

GunShard,
You do not appear to understand juice. If you think of everything in terms of implied probability, it becomes a lot easier:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/

No juice is no vig.

[hutennis]

18. Don't insult me, you dumbass. Too many gamblers that don't learn from their mistakes. I was answering your questions until your trolling and disrespect.

I just deleted my 3 answers to your 3 questions just now. If you were smart, you wouldn't insulted me and your first 3 questions would be answered already. I don't tolerate trolls and stupid people.

I have no idea what you are talking about.
Sorry, but this just does not make sense.

[jgilmartin]

No juice is no vig.

Yes, vig is juice. But without knowing what the other side is, you cannot assume that a number is heavily juiced. A big favorite does not always mean big juice (in fact there is often lower juice on lopsided matchups). If you convert to implied probabilities you can see this.

[raiders72001]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...ical-hold.html

[PatrickBateman]

GunShard,

Nice writeup man. I don't necessarily agree with it all but it is thought provoking and I think you bring up some good points. Don't let the rude, passive aggresive, and sarcastic a-holes that pop up from time to time get you down. They think they are just smarter than everyone else in the world. Brush them off and BOL

[raiders72001]

GunShard,

Nice writeup man. I don't necessarily agree with it all but it is thought provoking and I think you bring up some good points. Don't let the rude, passive aggresive, and sarcastic a-holes that pop up from time to time get you down. They think they are just smarter than everyone else in the world. Brush them off and BOL

Unlike many of the threads here, I don't see overtly sarcastic posts in this thread. People are just pointing out theoretical hold along with other disagreements.

[PatrickBateman]

Disagreements are totally fine and welcomed. I just find that many people on here tend to be snide about, not saying all, just noticed that there are a lot of people full of themselves. Sorry if you thought I was insulting you personally. BOL

[raiders72001]

Disagreements are totally fine and welcomed. I just find that many people on here tend to be snide about, not saying all, just noticed that there are a lot of people full of themselves. Sorry if you thought I was insulting you personally. BOL