[NSN21]

Looking for a bit of math help here...

If I know a certain number has a push percentage of X, what is the math behind calculating how many cents it is worth? For example, if I find out that CFB total of 55 pushes exactly 8% of the time (obviously not true, but for the sake of argument), how would I figure out how many cents it is worth to play 54.5 & 55.5?

Real world example: 3 in the NFL pushes at a rate of approximately 10%, and is worth approximately 22 cents. How is that 22 cents calculated?

[wrongturn]

Let's say the line is +3 -110. You want to know what price for +3.5 is equivalent to +3 -110. The two bet's expected value should be same:

Risk $110 to win 100 on +3 -110: EV = 45% * 100 + 10% * 0 + 45% * (-110) = -4.5
Risk $X to win 100 on +3.5 -x: EV = 55% * 100 + 45% * (-X) = 55 - 0.45X

55 - 0.45X = -4.5
X=132.2

So the fair price for +3.5 is about -132, which is about 22 cents from -110.

Note: It is not the accurate calculation but simple and close enough.

[NSN21]

wrongturn - Thank you, that helps a ton!