[gino342]

Hi - what's the best way to analyze such a play? Would you price each individually and consider it a parlay of the two individual plays? Do we need to also factor in the correlation between scoring first and winning which i then assume you would need historical data from a DB to generate right? Thanks in advance for any help.

Example:
Team A to score 1st and lose the game

[subs]

I assume this is for footy or NFL but not hoops or tennis or snooker, right?

IMO, def correlated. this isn't an easy prop, altho for baseball it might not be too hard cos there is the sample sizes to get a fairly accurate idea.

[gino342]

for MLB, thx

[subs]

sorry, i don't know anything about MLB.


please disregard my opinion as i'm not in a position to offer anything more than a guess. in some sports scoring 1st would change the distribution of outcomes drastically, but in MLB i just don't know.

i guess, do teams play differently when in front or behind is the Q that you need to ask yourself.

GL

[subs]

if there is a who will score 1st prop anywhere, u could maybe work out if they r correlated by multiplying the no-vig P of the relevant MLs, sorry can't help u much.

[rm18]

Of course you have to look at the correlation, then it is impacted by which team is favored and by how much, which team bats first, and also as well by how big of an inning the team who scores first is likely to score.

[gino342]

thx

[buby74]

MLB is probably the hardest sport to analyse this prop!
You will need
an estimate of how many runs team A will score
an estimate of how many runs team B will score
A way of converting average runs expected into the distribution of 0, 1,2 per game etc

A way of combining these to work out the winning proportions (the money line and over under could be used here to give you an indication)
A way of accounting for big innings. (I would use the tango distribution).
This is really hard!

For the simplest example if you are told team A lost 2-1 at home in 9 innings what is the probability they scored first?
I estimate it to be 32.4% (assuming there is a 35% chance that the road team scored their two runs in 1 inning).

Whereas if the team loses 2-1 on the road in 8.5 innings then there is a 41.1% chance they scored first. (again assuming a 35% chance of the winning team scoring both their runs in the same inning.).

If I was you I would try to replicate my calculations before betting on this type of prop to get a feel for what you have to account for.