Originally Posted by
PuffPaffy
Hi guys,
I am building a soccer model wich i believe has some potential, its far from finished though.
What i did to run some tests is the folowing:
- Use data from 3 seasons, 8 different competitions, 07-08 till 10-11
- convert that data to predict odds i need for the folowing season: 11-12
- check in those 8 competitions the first +/- 100 games at start of the season 11-12 if i can find +EV bets according to my model
I used the pinny opening lines, and i strictly bet 1x2
Total stats
Games : 995
Bets : 626
%bets : 62.9
win% : 42.5
Profit(U): 24.39
ROI : 3.90
AVG odd: 2.88
Since i am new to SB but i find it very facinating and interesting i would like to know a couple of things:
- What is a decent sample size with those stats?
- I read alot about that backtesting is often useless and flawed, however since i am not using any data
that was available during that particular season, or any other future events, how should i see this?
Any pointers or advice would be highly appriciated! I might have made some mistakes in my post so feel free to ask
if you want me to clarify certain things.
Ps: reason i only used about 100 games from a season is because after that period i would like to adjust my model.