Originally Posted by
hutennis
Well, looks like my ban is lifted and I can crap up HTT a bit more with my useless trolls felled with nonsense nobody can benefit from.
So, here we go!
What we got over here is a classic instance of “pretended knowledge”, or what Nobel Prize laureate and father of behavioral physiology Daniel Kahneman calls “What you see is all there is” cognitive illusion. In your case it is “What I know is all there is”
It is extremely common and a great source for all kinds of problems.
We, as human beings, just love to simplify, to make up story from the little we know but do not allow for what we don’t know.
Furthermore, after story is made up it becomes our baby. We love it, cherish it and protect it.
The dreadful conformation bias kicks in and we start looking only at the information that confirms our beloved story.
Anything disconfirming is ignored.
So, in all likelihood, the argument that oddsmakers are way more sophisticated bunch that you give them credit for and thus a lot more
than just “injuries, lineup changes, referees, weather updates” is going into setting the odds, in other words, there is something you don’t know
that is crucial for making the right decision whether -120 is equal to +100 or not and whether it is all just steam and shit, will be promptly rejected and may be even ridiculed.
Go ahead. I don’t mind. I’m sticking with Nobel Prize guy though.
They would care because they are not oddsmakers. Their job is to promptly follow oddsmakers.
And, in unlikely event that Nobel prize guy is right and you are wrong, we can say that this time they did not do their job too well,
allowing bunch of steam chasers to take advantage of them and beat them to the number.
I think they may not like being taken advantage of too much and may boot.
Ridiculously farfetched assumption, I understand, but still…
As we can see, your argument is truly great! Untouchable!
I did my best though. I’m sure my best is not good enough either.
After all, who needs all this physiological bullshit, albeit established by some of the smartest people in a world
with a single goal of protecting us from ugly mistakes that inevitably cost us a boatload of money?
Who gives a crap that money saved is money earned?
Hutennis, if you cannot give people over here what they really want – a magical formula that will allow them turn garbage into gold -
What is the point in posting? Why are you here?
Good question. After all, whom people who put all these banners up like more? Those who search for magic formulas or those who try to spread and absorb money saving ideas? Why am I getting banned again? Trolling?