1. 05-19-12 09:16 AM #1
    jakeandba
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    Risk, Return, and Gambling Market Efficiency paper found req opinions

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    Was doing research on ROI rates in wagering. Found this paper, completed in 2006 and probably a thesis paper for a Master's degree or maybe a paper for upper class. Would love to hear opinions or criticism of the paper.

    http://jmercer.ba.ttu.edu/Friday%20S...Efficiency.pdf
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  2. 05-19-12 12:53 PM #2
    TomG
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    Well, what do you think?
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  3. 05-19-12 05:26 PM #3
    gamble4heisman
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    i found it relatively elementary without any real conclusions.... more informative with no new ideas.
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  4. 05-20-12 10:46 AM #4
    VLR100
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    Some good reading in the references section. Also in section v, the author mentions betting only at a really large return rate, 30 or 40 percent. I don't know about you but I'd settle for lower returns. Difficult enough to hit 52.38% at -110. Using fractional kelly is probably a better way to reduce the risk of ruin then restrict oneself to a smaller number of higher edge betting opportunities.
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  5. 05-21-12 03:22 AM #5
    Brock Windsor
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    Comparing Apples and Oranges no? I just skimmed it but it seems he's not reducing the risk-free or market rate to one day of opportunity cost. If it's a straight bet on one event you would only have that money tied up for one day, not one year. Did I miss his explanation of this? Looks like a paper written on Sunday and turned in Monday morning.
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  6. 05-21-12 06:59 AM #6
    Inkwell77
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    Quote Originally Posted by VLR100 View Post
    Some good reading in the references section. Also in section v, the author mentions betting only at a really large return rate, 30 or 40 percent. I don't know about you but I'd settle for lower returns. Difficult enough to hit 52.38% at -110. Using fractional kelly is probably a better way to reduce the risk of ruin then restrict oneself to a smaller number of higher edge betting opportunities.
    I will be trying to read these.
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  7. 05-21-12 10:27 AM #7
    TomG
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    It is quite shocking that papers of this quality actually get published. It's really a shame too, as it means the few good papers are less likely to be read because of garbage like this.
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  8. 05-21-12 01:09 PM #8
    Thremp
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    Hopefully he learned some math between this paper and his MBA classes.
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  9. 05-22-12 03:23 AM #9
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomG View Post
    It is quite shocking that papers of this quality actually get published. It's really a shame too, as it means the few good papers are less likely to be read because of garbage like this.
    Is that necessarily a bad thing?
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