[JohnGalt2341]

Let's assume that there are 2 brothers using the same exact model and flat betting $100 on each bet and all the bets are at -110. Brother #1 makes around 1 bet a week but he wins an impressive 70% of his bets. Brother #2 makes several bets a day but he only wins 52% of his bets. I would assume that brother #1 is making far too few bets and brother #2 is making too many bets. Is there an ideal winning percentage to be at to maximize profit? Thanks in advance.

Please read post #3 as well.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Isn't the answer obvious? Brother #1 and brother #2 are both making the same 70% plays, right?

[JohnGalt2341]

Isn't the answer obvious? Brother #1 and brother #2 are both making the same 70% plays, right?

Brother #1 only makes plays when he feels the advantage is huge. Brother #2 makes plays on everything that he feels is even a slight advantage. Brother #1 is making money... but not much because he is making such a small # of plays. Brother #2 is actually losing money because of -110. Certainly there is a happy medium between 70% and 52%. What is the optimal percentage to maximize profit?

[tukkk]

number of plays that achieve the smallest total risk to reward ratio

[Justin7]

Your goal with a model is to make as much money as possible.

When you have a 70% chance of winning (which you never do in a liquid sport), you bet a lot. When you have a 52% chance of winning, you bet a little (if you have reduced juice, otherwise you pass). If you want to make the most money, you adjust your bet-size according to your chance of winning... at least until your small bets are bigger than the market will take. Then, the game gets more complicated.

[brettels]

i thought it was 55% at odds of 1.7 but even that is a very thin profit.

[oneunder]

For those of you with a winning NHL model, what percent of the games do you find a large enough edge to bet a side? How about the total?

[wantitall4moi]

There is none. Winning percentage was made up by touts as a record keeping tool and wannabe 'sharp' gamblers took it as their way of also keeping score.

There is one simple goal when it comes to betting on sports....making a profit. By any means necessary. Guys who start citing winning rates or percentages are dick waving blow hards who probably never made a dime.

Give me two sides of the same game and the right odds and I am a happy guy, and I will make money hand over fist hitting just 50%. Some guys will claim one side always has an edge in a game, the trick is to know that BEFORe the game starts which is impossible, again despite what people like to claim. So becoming the book yourself and making a profit regardless is the BEST way to make money. Not the most ideal approach in most sports but in enough so as to make it a viable approach to make a decent steady income. Assuming of course you have the limits available and the options to place bets where you want and when you want.

[allin1]

wantitall4moi don't you think there are sharp guys out there making money with their models that hit 53%?

[Dark Horse]

Is there an ideal winning percentage? Yes. 100%. It is attained by 50% of players, and maintained with 100% certainty if they quit after their first bet.