[AgainstAllOdds]

I understand the concept but when I acutally try to apply it in terms of making a +EV bet, I seem to be missing something. I have looked over this thread http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...-middling.html and have tried to use Ganchs calculator to which I did not understand some of the terms. I then watched Justin7's video here http://www.sbr.tv/video-602-Playing+...+analysis.html and still could not understand what I am supposed to do.

Some questions I have about Ganchs sheet are for Bet 1 inputs, are you supposed to enter in your current win prob, lose prob and edge or is are you supposed to enter in your original bets numbers. Another thing was, what are equate wins and losses? And how do you calculate your TOTAL EV (% of bank) and TOTAL EV (% of bet)?

I am arriving at this because I currently have a bet placed for the Denver Nuggest in which I got them at -9.5 -110 and they are now -13 -110...So I wanted to see if its worth it to try to middle it.

Any insight into this would be great.

[AgainstAllOdds]

.

[ICE-BLOOD]

a middle oppurtunity for an NBA game pointspread for 3 1/2 points is about as large as there is if you're into getting alot of #'s of both sides cashing

personally, i like to let the 1st bet ride at the great line, but to get 10, 11, 12, and some 13 as a winner in an NBA final score outcome does look good

probably wont get that oppurtunity too often in the NBA

hope that helps

good luck

[Peep]

What you are describing doing, buying a number off a game you have periviously bought, is better called a "buyback" than a "middle".

[AgainstAllOdds]

Interesting peep. Will do some research on that and see what I can come up with.

Thanks.

[flyingillini]

Why haven't the people that are experts on this topic chimed in?

[The General]

Full time job and hard to explain on a forum unless giving away a lot of knowledge which takes tremendous time from guys who are good at projecting line moves.

[Peep]

Yes, a buyback is quite different than when you get both numbers given to you at once ("a middle").

With a buyback, a 2nd bet done at a latter time, you have to assume the new number is now valid, and, if this is the case, the old number that you had now is a "bargain", and worth something in itself, since the line moved in your favor. I would, as another poster metioned, hold it and take my chances.

[The General]

Seen sharp people talk about middling, esp if you are new at it, will break you. I think they are right. I've said for a long time, if you are trying or want to middle games or be a middler by trade, then you should be doing it often (Full time at risky odds of being a success). Odds are short that you will hit one just Now and then. Now and then is a very risky prop IMO. I am no middler, but passing info I have read and learned over time. A middle try every so often is not likely to be a good thing for a gambler.

[Peep]

I don't know General, I pick up middles whenever I see them in passing. Now you want to know WHAT to middle, what is a positive expectation.

But as long as you know that, you can't get hurt. At -110/-110, all you need in an event that will happen one time in ten and you are in great shape. For instance, if in baseball you see an 8.5 total in one book and a 9.5 in another, no reason you shouldn't make a play for the nine total hitting.

[The General]

I hear ya peep. I am no expert by any means. A little out of my league here honestly. Just passing blind info I guess that I trust. And by the way Wanted to say hi to you and hope you are doing well.

[The General]

Then again Peep, You are no rookie by any means, Sir.

[hajune]

I understand the concept but when I acutally try to apply it in terms of making a +EV bet, I seem to be missing something. I have looked over this thread http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...-middling.html and have tried to use Ganchs calculator to which I did not understand some of the terms. I then watched Justin7's video here http://www.sbr.tv/video-602-Playing+...+analysis.html and still could not understand what I am supposed to do.

Some questions I have about Ganchs sheet are for Bet 1 inputs, are you supposed to enter in your current win prob, lose prob and edge or is are you supposed to enter in your original bets numbers. Another thing was, what are equate wins and losses? And how do you calculate your TOTAL EV (% of bank) and TOTAL EV (% of bet)?

I am arriving at this because I currently have a bet placed for the Denver Nuggest in which I got them at -9.5 -110 and they are now -13 -110...So I wanted to see if its worth it to try to middle it.

Any insight into this would be great.

Anytime you get this big of spread middling is a profitable situation. What you should do is this. The -9 1/2 spread will cover roughly 60% of the time. Therefore 60% of your money should be on Denver. I would put $70 on the other team. In the long run you will maximize your profit. Al those calulations being done is complicated. You simple need to know how many times Denver should be expected to win by 10-11-12 15% of the time ( To win it all) and 13 about 5% to win half. It only makes sense to have 60% of your money on the likely spread winner if those odds are about 60% to win. If you do not middle and Denver wins you still make $23. Trust me, I know what I am doing on this issue!!!

[Peep]

Thanks General, same to you bud.

[Hells Kitchen]

Middling baseball for GUARANTEED PROFIT!!
5 years and running and have yet to not show a profit.You will not get rich but.
Whats wrong with 3-4 hundy a week with no risk.
Get a couple books with overnight basball lines(dime lines) and immediatly bet your stud pitchers. 9 times out of 10 lines have risen anywhere from 20 -30 cents bet the other side and get drunk with no worries.
I must say though i have an advantage as my local juices the f\*\*k out the faves so i have a distinct advantage over someone that can just play offshore.