[Sin City Sharp]

I've been handicapping football and basketball for a number of years, and I'm planning on gradually moving into baseball.

I have a general question concerning baseball handicapping, and it has to do with making your own line vs. the bookmakers line. In football, I usually look for a difference of 5 or more points between my line and the book's line, but I'm not sure what kind of difference I should be looking at in a baseball moneyline. For instance, if I handicap a game and make team A -160 over team B. How much of a disparity in the book's moneyline should I see before I consider making a play.

Thanks for your opinions.

[ConnieDotey]

If you move in baseball then your money line will depends on your popularity and your style of playing.

[Cheme82]

5-point difference? How often do you find games with lines that far off? If I find games that are a field goal off of my lines I jump with joy (usually undervalued favorites of between 3 and 4 points that should be laying a touchdown).

It also depends on how your lines are because when I find any line that is off of what I consider a fair line then I put money on it. How much money you put on the game should vary on how much of an edge you think you have.

To make it simple imagine you'll risk a unit for every 10 cents you feel the line is off. So a favorite of -150 that you capped at -170 merits a 2 unit play.

[Sin City Sharp]

5-point difference? How often do you find games with lines that far off? If I find games that are a field goal off of my lines I jump with joy (usually undervalued favorites of between 3 and 4 points that should be laying a touchdown).

In college football, I find 5 point differences fairly often. In fact, if I'm looking at huge favorites or underdogs, I'll usually require more than a 5 point differential. I'm not going to take 49 points if my number comes 44. As you mentioned, in the NFL the lines tend to be a lot tighter, and I'll usually look for at least a 3 point differential.

Getting back to baseball handicapping, I was wondering if it might be better to convert the bookmaker's moneyline into a projected run differential, and then look for a discrepancy of at least one run between that and my projected run differential.

Any thoughts on that?

[Data]

Convert the line to percentages and then require a certain number of percentage points.

[Sin City Sharp]

Convert the line to percentages and then require a certain number of percentage points.

Thanks, Data.

I was giving that some thought, also. For instance, if my true line is -140, converting it to a percentage yields .583 for the favorite and .417 for the dog. I would then be looking at playing either side that deviates X% from the book's converted line.

I suppose what I'm looking for from the experienced baseball handicappers is what it a good rule of thumb for "X"?

Cheme82 seems to suggest making a play based on a flat 10 cent differential, but I would think that as the line increases, you would want a larger differential, right?

[Data]

I do not think this has anything to do with baseball per se. Generally speaking, forget about american lines and think in term of probabilities and, their twin brother, percentages.

[Wrecktangle]

Sin city...I'm of the opinion you should be using a data base of past results and use that to "forecast" against (treat it like it's an entirely new season: no peeking) and see what your win statistic for differing deviations from your calced line are. If you got a good algorithm, you may find you can win with deviations of (for example) 1-2 runs or ML of +/-150, 175 or 200. It really must match up with your prediction technique...the better it is, the smaller deviation you need. So for example in in NFL sides, I find that +/- 3 pts is usually good for me, but this year I had to go to 5 pts since it was a difficult year. In years past I've been down to 2 pts. In Data's probabilistic world I'm shooting for a 60% win rate vs the sides line.

[coldhardfacts]

The key in baseball, like everything else, is betting the side with the superior matchup (pitchers vs teams) if there is value. Don't even think about betting sides that are overmatched, on a losing streak, or playing a very hot team. Once I've identified if a side that has the advantage, I'll lay up to 20 pctg points more than what I feel the line should be. That's what I feel the line SHOULD BE, not what I think the bookmakers will make it. So, if I feel a team with a superior matchup should be a 130 favorite, I'll lay up to 150 on them.

On the other hand, if I feel the matchup is relatively even, I'll bet either side if I'm getting 20 pctg points MORE than what I feel the line should be.

JMO. But my results have been extremely positive.