[monkeh]

I have been a casual gambler for a couple years, betting on sports and playing poker. Recently I started researching gambling, handicapping and such in order to make money if possible. I found a website, handicappingpolice.com, that monitors handicappers to validate their legitimacy. A couple handicappers, such as betsheet.com and eddiehawk.com, each list a record floating around 60% success rate and list their picks during halftime of each one to prove their integrity. The going rate seems to be anywhere from $500 to $750 a week for such a person's picks. My idea was to purchase these picks and split the cost amongst say five gamblers so that your initial cost is only $100 a week or so. Then you have to worry about fees with any offshore book sites and any taxes would be claimed only if there were winnings. Regardless, it would seem that by playing the percentages and wagering $300 to $500 per pick that a reasonable amount of money could be made over a long haul. Of course, there will be down weeks and hot streaks; but if the average hovers at 60%, then a long, sustained plan might work. However, after reading on these forums and other sites a 60% winning rate seems highly improbable if not impossible.

My questions are:
1. Are these handicappers full of it? Do they lie about their records or do they actually hit close to 60% of their picks? Do they achieve these records by using shady lines, etc.?
2. If they are somehow legit, then what other pitfalls could there be to making money under such a scheme?

I realize that there are probably things I am missing here, hence why I am asking questions. I figured that it seems to easy; and if it was so easy, then everyone would be doing it. I attached an excel spreadsheet breaking down by page the success at different percentages and at $300, $400, and $500 per pick. I appreciate any info that anyone provides ahead of time.

[Peep]

1) They are full of it.
2) See (1) above.

[reno cool]

remember that when there are many handicappers involved someone is very likely to get extremely lucky. So a 60% return is likely for somebody. That doesn't mean that the particular player can expect to do that in the future. If they have truly documented results that's the most likely scenario.

It's funny how this exact thread keeps popping up over and over.

[G's pks]

All gamblers are 100% honest!!!

Ask Zboiz!

[Hotdiggity11]

60% isn't all that hard to maintain for someone who does this for a living and has years of experience. There are plenty of people who are full of shit and don't keep records. There are a few who don't keep records but are extremely good. Better just to ship around and find out who has the reputation before following their picks.

[Pancho sanza]

No one hits 60 % long term, unless they make 10 plays a year.

Thread closed.

[bfis108137]

I have heard Dr Bob quoted as being one of the good guys and he hit's 55% which is still very very profitable especially if you are at a -105 book and even more if you are using good money management. Honestly I think most people can achieve 53% long term if they put in the time but who has that kind of time. And plus I think anyone who is betting their own picks has a much more likely chance of becoming a gambler and following their heart. If someone is telling you what to pick then I think you are more inclined to just do it. This should give you food for thought. I taught myself to count cards but I can never win because I have no discipline. I have however taken other people's money and won with it because there is no stress. Maybe the same thing could be said here because a handicapper is just telling you what to do and you just do it.

[Peep]

I think Dr. Bob was a one year wonder bfis. If you are interested in following someone's plays, do it on paper or with $10 bets first to make sure that they are winning. A losing tout will of course have a thousand stories, and if you buy his picks your chances of hearing them all are quite good. Every losing play has a story.....

[durito]

I think Dr. Bob was a one year wonder bfis.

Dr. Bob is 57% on NCAAF and 55% on Basketball over the last 22 years. This is fact. (59% and 56% this year respectively). His service was worth every penny and them some in the past. These days you won't find any book that will even let you play these.

[Peep]

OK, I'll bite.

Where and by whom and how are they documented?

[durito]

I subscribed for 8 years.

[Peep]

Yes. Are you still a subscriber?

Where was it documented? And against what lines?

[durito]

I have nothing to offer other than my word. His reputation is as honest as it gets in this industry.

His plays were graded always against the consensus (pinny,greek,cris) line at the time of his release. For years it was no problem getting these lines. After the 72% year in 2005, the lines started to move. If you use his release page you can still get in before hand.

However, if you are betting any decent sized amounts every book out there (except pinny, which you can't get in unless you are automated) will cut you off.

Yes, I still subscribe for the analysis.

[Peep]

OK, thanks Dorito.

GL with your (and his) plays.

[reno cool]

Dr. Bob is 57% on NCAAF and 55% on Basketball over the last 22 years. This is fact. (59% and 56% this year respectively). His service was worth every penny and them some in the past. These days you won't find any book that will even let you play these.

How do they prevent you from playing these? And are his picks still available?

[durito]

Greek gives you a warning that if you do it again, you get a phone only account.

[smokin1]

Basketball Best Bets (all records in star-basis)
2007-08 = 460-428-22 for -10.8 Stars
2006-07 = 450-415-11 for -6.5 Stars
2005-06 = 574-420-16 for +112.0 Stars

Thats his record from his site

Hard to believe books are in a rush to get people off his plays. besides 03 and 05 i would have shot myself if I paid 300/month for his opinion and ended up down 10 units after 900+ plays

[LT Profits]

Basketball Best Bets (all records in star-basis)
2007-08 = 460-428-22 for -10.8 Stars
2006-07 = 450-415-11 for -6.5 Stars
2005-06 = 574-420-16 for +112.0 Stars

Thats his record from his site

Hard to believe books are in a rush to get people off his plays. besides 03 and 05 i would have shot myself if I paid 300/month for his opinion and ended up down 10 units after 900+ plays

Forget basketball, Dr. Bob moves lines in College Football like no one else I have ever seen.

[durito]

Forget basketball, Dr. Bob moves lines in College Football like no one else I have ever seen.

the lines move in college basketball just as much.

watch the screen at 6pm eastern every day

[smokin1]

ok LT, he has a specialty. That makes more sense.

the ncaab line moves at 6pm arent just him btw, durito. I know atleast one other "timed release" capper that releases his totals between 6-6:10pm.

[Justin7]

I subscribe to Dr. Bob also. He's the real deal, and the only "tout" I know that has this kind of winning record.

99% of touts are scumbags that lose long-term.

[smokin1]

i noticed that also Justin. While Im sure there are a couple exceptions, most I would guess are failed cappers who found other ways to make money since the cant win a betting. The successful services are not the ones the produce the best winning % but rather its those that are the best at hiding they suck, misrepresenting their abilities and keeping you believing "they are just on a temp bad streak".

one major concern I have with these above average cappers is they hold a very strong power in their hands. the ability to change the line with 100s maybe 1000s of people following what they say without 2nd thought. your telling me someone in the business to make money would never use this anomily to their advantage (moving a line to their advantage, then betting themself). I can think of alot of ways having that much control over the market can be abused without anyone being the wiser.

[Cassidy]

Anyone knows about a called docsports?

[smokin1]

Anyone knows about a called docsports?

Ive heard of it, but never used the service myself. I checked his site really quickly, right off I couldnt find an archive of their picks/record. Thats the 1st sign you should run.

Did a little further research and found:

Last 60 days Units ROI Pct WL O/U Picks

+1277.0 units +24.3% 65% 30-16 Top Play Picks

+236.0 units +2.9% 53% 39-34 Overall Picks

+148.0 units +0.8% 53% 82-73

The site only tracks 7,30 and 60 day intervals so I am not able to get a more detailed record. The 7 and 30 days averages werent available also because they both fell into negative units/% for that time period.

So guess it depends on what you are looking for in a service.

[LT Profits]

Durito,

I assumed the 6:00 moves were all RAS total releases. I should pay closer attention to sides at that time.

[Justin7]

one major concern I have with these above average cappers is they hold a very strong power in their hands. the ability to change the line with 100s maybe 1000s of people following what they say without 2nd thought. your telling me someone in the business to make money would never use this anomily to their advantage (moving a line to their advantage, then betting themself). I can think of alot of ways having that much control over the market can be abused without anyone being the wiser.

You overestimate how hard it is to move lines. 20k can move most college football games a full half-point on the board. Hoops is smaller than that.

The guys that "abuse" their toutship ... bah, I'll do a video on this. I've been planning to, but just been swamped.

[fiveteamer]

Could you just play his picks at lower rated books? Ones that maybe do not keep track of such things or are slower to react?

[durito]

Could you just play his picks at lower rated books? Ones that maybe do not keep track of such things or are slower to react?

Yes. Though if you are playing less than $1,000 a game you probably won't have a problem at Bookmaker or Greek.

The issue is books consider these steam and books don't like steam.

[durito]

You overestimate how hard it is to move lines. 20k can move most college football games a full half-point on the board. Hoops is smaller than that.

Depends on who is betting (and where).

[monkeh]

I wanted to thank everyone for their input so far. From what I can gather is that this is possible, but to be very hesitant as to where you get your picks from? It seems that Dr. Bob would work for me as I was only planning on betting $300 to $500 per pick, which avoid any problems with the books. Like I said before, Betsheet.com and Eddiehawk.com keep detailed records going back about three and a half years. I understand that you can not just expect 60% from these two sites going forward, but do they seem legit otherwise? Once again, thanks for your help.

[durito]

That they keep detailed records on their site is irrelevant. Are they accurate and fair records?

I see many touts put out crap like this:

100 dimes on nuggets

No line is listed. Say Nuggets are -5 at the time they put out their play but last night they were -3. They win by 4. Tout claims a win, you get a loss.

Others will just make up records, not count losses, etc.

Dr. Bob does it as honest as possible, erring on the side of caution if anything is debatable. The issue here is that you have to be there on his release page when he releases the plays every day, with your book open in a different window. You have to understand variance. Do not expect to win every day, week, month, or even year. Quite frankly there are perhaps "easier" -- albeit with more effort and intelligence -- but far less hassle ways of making money in this industry. Though reading Dr. Bob's writeups everyday for a year will certainly improve your gambling IQ.

[smokin1]

I wanted to thank everyone for their input so far. From what I can gather is that this is possible, but to be very hesitant as to where you get your picks from? It seems that Dr. Bob would work for me as I was only planning on betting $300 to $500 per pick, which avoid any problems with the books. Like I said before, Betsheet.com and Eddiehawk.com keep detailed records going back about three and a half years. I understand that you can not just expect 60% from these two sites going forward, but do they seem legit otherwise? Once again, thanks for your help.

Another problem with using a service is in most cases you get all their losses and then hopefully all of their wins. You line will always be worse then theirs. If you are getting better lines then your tout then thats a problem in of itself since many feel that the value you retain on the closing line relates to your probability of future success. So if the line is always better then your tout got its a good sign they suck.

In my opinion using a service is very tricky and inevitably your own judgement creeps into decisions whether you want it to or not so in the end you are just paying for a source of information to help influence your own decisions. Personally Im starting to lean towards free sources to get this same information however I must say I hopefully learned from the tricks and trip ups from watching the patterns of the different services I have tried.

[smokin1]

Could you just play his picks at lower rated books? Ones that maybe do not keep track of such things or are slower to react?

Slower to react doesnt mean wont care in my opinion. Just means they will have no problem stealing your money if you win and/or limiting your account pretty quickly when their accountant checks the figures at the end of day/week or whatever.

[smokin1]

You overestimate how hard it is to move lines. 20k can move most college football games a full half-point on the board. Hoops is smaller than that.

The guys that "abuse" their toutship ... bah, I'll do a video on this. I've been planning to, but just been swamped.

I would love to see this vid, Ill keep an eye out.

Also dont forget all the contests/free pick resources that follow these more reputable services. Meaning because of the slower line movement say on a covers contest, everyone and their mother is gonna add dr.bob's plays, etc to their daily picks. I have seen the top contest places able to change a line 1-2 pts almost daily. So if service ABC plays the Lakers, Contest contestant in 1st place plays it also, line moves even more.

At some point I would also love to hear your opinion on market value vs true odds. I have seen many times that people say the closing line (or the line 1hr before gametime) is very often representative of the actual odds for that event. Example: ML for fav = -200 therefore fav will win roughly 66% of the time.

I think these touts plays are atleast one example where this is not the case. The closing line is manipulated to keep the X number of followers from blindly following some touts plays and/or simply the book taking advantage knowing they can tack on a couple points because after such a play is released very few people want to fade it. Therefore, it still represents the TMV but does not represent true odds. Therefore, using the line you got compared to the closing line does not accurately depict the edge you got in realtion to the true odds (one of your other videos).