[mebaran]

I'm just staring at my screen, and for some reason, I'm struggling with this...someone please slap/help me :

The line on a hockey total is:

o5 -120 (~52.17% no-vig line)
u5 EV (~47.83% no-vig line)

I project the game total will be under 5 goals 45.21% of the time, and over 5 goals 37.26% of the time, and exactly 5 goals 17.53% of the time. What would my fair total line be? (Example: O/U 5, -109/109)

For some reason I'm struggling with the math...I wish Ganchrow could pop in and brain slap me

[durito]

take out the push and re-calculate the percent

[mebaran]

So you're saying take the 45.21% and 37.26% and re-calculate into a fair line without a push like this:

.3726/(.3726/.4521) = 45.18% (and 1 - 0.4518 = 54.82%)

Assuming the above, the fair line would be O/U 5, 121.3/-121.3?

[Pancho sanza]

I'm just staring at my screen, and for some reason, I'm struggling with this...someone please slap/help me :

The line on a hockey total is:

o5 -120 (~52.17% no-vig line)
u5 EV (~47.83% no-vig line)

I project the game total will be under 5 goals 45.21% of the time, and over 5 goals 37.26% of the time, and exactly 5 goals 17.53% of the time. What would my fair total line be? (Example: O/U 5, -109/109)

For some reason I'm struggling with the math...I wish Ganchrow could pop in and brain slap me

Not to hijack your thread and I don't know which game your looking at, but your land 5 rate of 17.53 % looks way low.

[mebaran]

Not to hijack your thread and I don't know which game your looking at, but your land 5 rate of 17.53 % looks way low.

Yes, I'm aware of 5 being a key number. Those numbers are assuming games are infinitely long (which I obviously adjust for later)

[mebaran]

Not to hijack your thread and I don't know which game your looking at, but your land 5 rate of 17.53 % looks way low.

So my ACTUAL final numbers would be:

Over 5 ~44%
5 Exactly ~23%
Under 5 ~33%

How would I calculate a fair total and line from this?

[Pancho sanza]

So my ACTUAL final numbers would be:

Over 5 ~44%
5 Exactly ~23%
Under 5 ~33%

How would I calculate a fair total and line from this?

over 5 = 57.1 % (44/77)
under 5.5 = 56 % (56/100)

looks like

5 ov -139/+129
5.5 un -133/+123

[mebaran]

over 5 = 57.1 % (44/77)
under 5.5 = 56 % (56/100)

looks like

5 ov -139/+129
5.5 un -133/+123

Much appreciated, sir.

[mebaran]

over 5 = 57.1 % (44/77)
under 5.5 = 56 % (56/100)

looks like

5 ov -139/+129
5.5 un -133/+123

So just to clarify, if I was setting the FAIR line in this example, it would be o/u 5, -139/+139?

[Pancho sanza]

So just to clarify, if I was setting the FAIR line in this example, it would be o/u 5, -139/+139?

No, -133/+133

Use this formula from ganchrows vba functions.

ProbEdge2US(Probability, Edge) or ProbEdge2Dec(Probability, Edge): Calculates US or decimal odds based on probability and edge. Example: ProbEdge2US(55%,5%) = -110.

plug in 57.1 % with zero vig and you'll get -133