[losingmyshirt]

Team A -105
Team B -105
Team A +1.5 -141
Team B -1.5 +131

Based on historical data the margin of victory is 2 or more goals 79.35% of the time

Using my logic assuming the ML is accurate team b has a 50% win probablity, and when winning will cover the spread 80% of the time meaning a roughly 40% chance of covering the spread making a fair line of +150.
Would this make Team A +1.5 -141 a +EV play since the line implys a probability of 58.5% rather than the 60% I have calculated?

Thanks for any help

[square1]

Games where the ML-implied prob. is 50/50 may have a lower % chance of having a M.O.V. > 1 than do those games with heavy favorites.

[losingmyshirt]

Games where the ML-implied prob. is 50/50 may have a lower % chance of having a M.O.V. > 1 than do those games with heavy favorites.

Very true. I suppose overall I am oversimplifying the situation and before I can start to find edges need to take into consideration more factors.