Hello everyone. I was hoping one of you mathematically inclined people would be kind enough point me in the right direction.
I run a weekly NFL Pick’em office pool I got the idea that I could use it to place some good value bets by “buying out” some of the finalists on Monday before the MNF game. More often than not, the winner of the pool is determined by the result of the MNF game. If I could determine what the “Fair value” is for the “Pick’em ticket” each person holds, then I could offer to buy it at a discount.
If two people are tied going into MNF, and each person has a selected a different MNF winner, then determining the value of each position is easy since I can just use the ML numbers that are already established. My plan is to use the ML odds of the big books as a “fair value” price point, and make my offer at a heavy discount to those numbers.
My question is how to properly value a ticket that depends on a Total. If two people go into Monday night tied, and they have picked the same team to win, then the tie will be broken by who guessed the closest total score of the MNF game. Here is an example of my problem:
Pot Value: $400
Ticket A has picked a Total Score of 40.
Ticket B Has Picked a Total Score of 50.
Pinny has the Total at 43
How do I calculate the “Fair Market Price” for tickets A and B? I have played around with determining the % difference between Pinny’s 43 and the actual 45 and running the numbers that way, but since I’m not a math guy, I don’t feel like I am doing it right.
Also, if it does't enormously complicate things, how would I calculate it if a 3rd person were involved? For example: Ticket C has picked a total of 51.
Any help would be appreciated. Thanks!