1. 09-20-11 02:52 PM #1
    God1
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    Pitching change pricing

    Detwiler was changed to the phillies/nationals game 2 starter earlier today and the nationals ML went from +242 to +218. The total was moved at the same time from over 7 -107 to over 7 -117. How is it possible that the pitching change results in a higher chance that the nationals win but also more runs? Shouldn't those be mutually exclusive?
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  2. 09-20-11 03:28 PM #2
    tomcowley
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    There could have been other lineup things going on.
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  3. 09-20-11 03:44 PM #3
    God1
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcowley View Post
    There could have been other lineup things going on.
    Can we try and be rational and logical here? The total and ML moves were both made in the same minute at 12:39pm today. Lineups had been out in the first game for hours and obviously not for the 2nd game.

    Please give me a scenario where this makes sense, that would have to be quite the lineup change that was discovered in the few minutes the pitching change was off the board and repriced that could move the total UP 10 cents in addition to completely wiping out the less number of runs expected to be scored by the phillies as a result of the pitching change
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  4. 09-20-11 07:07 PM #4
    tomcowley
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    Quote Originally Posted by God1 View Post
    Can we try and be rational and logical here? The total and ML moves were both made in the same minute at 12:39pm today. Lineups had been out in the first game for hours and obviously not for the 2nd game.

    Please give me a scenario where this makes sense, that would have to be quite the lineup change that was discovered in the few minutes the pitching change was off the board and repriced that could move the total UP 10 cents in addition to completely wiping out the less number of runs expected to be scored by the phillies as a result of the pitching change
    Your line-reading skills are complete shit. Pinny blipped the ML from +218 and o-117 to +242 and o-107, then 2 minutes later back down to +217 and o-117. Given that the pitching change was announced like 6 hours before this, using that as an explanation is pretty damn stupid. It looks like they temporarily thought some good nats weren't going to be in the lineup, then decided that they were again.
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  5. 09-20-11 08:25 PM #5
    God1
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcowley View Post
    Your line-reading skills are complete shit. Pinny blipped the ML from +218 and o-117 to +242 and o-107, then 2 minutes later back down to +217 and o-117. Given that the pitching change was announced like 6 hours before this, using that as an explanation is pretty damn stupid. It looks like they temporarily thought some good nats weren't going to be in the lineup, then decided that they were again.
    The site I use for line histories had an incorrect history then. thanks! I just woke up to a pitching change and assumed that was the time it was announced because that was the only major move listed
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