[Boner_18]

I'm a recreational bettor who occassionally tries to understand mathmatical/+ev approaches to betting.

I know that many props and other small markets are beatable with little work. Today I noticed that this type of prop varries in price greatly from book to book:

X Team v. Y team YES/NO score in x:xx minutes

Not only am I consistently finding arbs here but I also find risk free "middle" opportunities. That is, getting 30 seconds of a game "free" where a score would resultin a win on both wagers.

What is a good approach to pricing this prop? Is there an accurate enough way to price it where I can discover the weaker line and just bet that? Should I stick to arbing/middling with this style prop?

[cyberbabble]

prop - Will there be a score in first 7.5 minutes?

I looked at it a little last year. Didn't pursue it seriously and gave up. Tracked regular season games, last 10 weeks 2009, first 12 weeks 2010, 327 games, manual spreadsheet so these numbers might be a little inaccurate. Yes - 180, No - 147, about 55% for Yes.

Didn't record the lines.

I thought there might be some coaches that like to start slowly and some coaches that like to start fast. Maybe mostly conservative running plays on the first possessions vs. start out passing from the beginning. Bet based on coaches tendencies.

[Justin7]

If you have a database, look at the time of the first score, and compare it to the game total.

[rsigley]

If you have a database, look at the time of the first score, and compare it to the game total.

why use the game total and not the 1q or 1h if you don't have 1q total?

[Justin7]

why use the game total and not the 1q or 1h if you don't have 1q total?

Any of those is fine. Q1 total and H1 total are just derivatives of the game total. I suppose Q1 would be better than game total if the spread were large.

[rsigley]

yes but closer to game time Q1 total takes into account who is receiving the ball first and their relation to the spread and it becomes not just a derivative of the FG total

which would be a totally more accurate representation of will there be a score in first X:XX and why most line movement in that prop occurs closer to kick off

[lumpy19]

fantastic.......so fantastic

[Justin7]

yes but closer to game time Q1 total takes into account who is receiving the ball first and their relation to the spread and it becomes not just a derivative of the FG total

which would be a totally more accurate representation of will there be a score in first X:XX and why most line movement in that prop occurs closer to kick off

Most books take down q1/h1 lines before the coin flip. If you can bet these after knowing that, you'll obviously do better.

[rsigley]

fwiw 1q/1h/this prop all available this week after coin toss results were public just like every other week this and last year

[RickySteve]

fwiw 1q/1h/this prop all available this week after coin toss results were public just like every other week this and last year

Witch hunt aside, semi-past-posted early game derivatives aren't nearly as easy to get down on as you seem to be implying.

[rsigley]

not sure what the problem is though. managed to bet quarters/that prop on pinny and bookmaker for every 1pm game after coin results were known and whether they chose to kick/receive and had time to get down multiple max bets and still make this post

[xyz]

In that case, you should bet some on the prop which team will score first based on the coin toss outcome. The outcomes of those two events are correlated.

not sure what the problem is though. managed to bet quarters/that prop on pinny and bookmaker for every 1pm game after coin results were known and whether they chose to kick/receive and had time to get down multiple max bets and still make this post