1. #1
    square1
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    Theoretical Hold on Pleasers & Teasers

    I'd appreciate any critical feedback to the following reasoning:

    5Dimes pays +100 on 6-pt. NFL 2-team teasers, implying a break-even win pct. of 70.7% on each leg.

    They pay +600 on 6-pt. NFL 2-team pleasers, implying a BE win % of 37.8% on each leg.

    Assume a non-integer spread, just so we can ignore pushes.

    If you "tease" one team, and "please" their opponent, exactly one bet will hit, and one will miss.

    Since 70.7% + 37.8% = 108.5%, we can say:

    1) If teasers and pleasers have the same hold, that hold is 8.5%.
    2) Either the teaser or the pleaser must have a hold of at least 8.5% in any game.

  2. #2
    Ganchrow
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    Sounds reasonable, although FWIW your terminology is slightly wrong.

    1 2 + 1 7 ≈ 108.5% is the so-called overround.

    The hold would be 1- 1 108.5% ≈ 7.840%.

    (And, while this is likely beside your point, I'll just mention that the 7.840% would be the hold on a purely hypothetical 1-team teaser/pleaser. The fact that one would in reality be parlaying multiple teased/pleased games would obviously increase that hold. Hence, if we assumed teasers and pleasers had the same hold (for all games), the hold on a 2-teamer would be 1 - (2 *7) (√2 + √7)2 ≈ 15.07%.)

  3. #3
    square1
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    Gotcha. Thanks.

  4. #4
    unit1884
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    I did the math on 5dimes pleasers a while ago and they numbers are not good. Your losing big time...

    DO NOT bet Pleasers at 5dimes under ANY circumstances.

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