if i layout all of the season win values from pinnacle, how do i then use those predicted wins to generate expected probabilities to make the playoffs ?
You would likely have to run a sim using the predicted wins for all of the teams in the conference.
figure out how many wins are needed to win the division/wildcard and then binomial it up.
Use the over unders to generate power ratings using solver in excel then simulate the season a 1000 or so times to see how often teams make the playoffs at least that's the approach I am going to take this weekend so I am ready for the season. I use a Bradley Terry style model although a normal distribution is equally valid
Here are the results of 10000 simulations of the NFl season using power ratings generated to match the over unders. The Chargers look very good value for an SB future betpower rating make playoffs win division win conf win superbowl Arizona 58.2 3135 2868 80 22 Atlanta 141.9 6635 4015 1198 556 Baltimore 133.9 7263 4356 1077 494 Buffalo 51.6 364 68 9 1 Carolina 36.4 86 27 1 0 Chicago 87.6 2367 980 177 58 Cincinnati 35.0 244 75 2 0 Cleveland 57.0 1447 460 40 14 Dallas 112.0 4313 1746 461 183 Denver 54.6 720 383 16 6 Detroit 97.7 3044 1236 223 80 Green Bay 197.0 8471 7249 2789 1459 Houston 89.3 4131 2845 250 85 Indianapolis 128.1 6730 5662 853 405 Jacksonville 61.1 1120 663 32 10 Kansas City 89.2 2376 1317 129 52 Miami 88.1 1935 473 110 38 Minnesota 70.8 1413 535 73 23 New England 243.6 8859 6825 3277 1985 New Orleans 155.4 7360 5089 1650 765 NY Giants 126.8 4608 1972 615 270 NY Jets 155.6 6393 2634 1002 522 Oakland 61.4 905 453 23 9 Philadelphia 185.9 8111 6134 2341 1234 Pittsburgh 142.1 7708 5109 1293 640 San Diego 171.9 8427 7847 1851 957 San Francisco 61.8 3066 2806 90 28 Seattle 43.6 1000 900 11 4 St. Louis 70.5 3708 3426 143 41 Tampa Bay 81.6 2174 869 136 49 Tennessee 57.1 1378 830 36 8 Washington 53.2 509 148 12 2
Ok that is unintelligible maybe this is more legible.power rating make playoffs win division win conf win superbowl Arizona 58.2 3135 2868 80 22 Atlanta 141.9 6635 4015 1198 556 Baltimore 133.9 7263 4356 1077 494 Buffalo 51.6 364 68 9 1 Carolina 36.4 86 27 1 0 Chicago 87.6 2367 980 177 58 Cincinnati 35.0 244 75 2 0 Cleveland 57.0 1447 460 40 14 Dallas 112.0 4313 1746 461 183 Denver 54.6 720 383 16 6 Detroit 97.7 3044 1236 223 80 Green Bay 197.0 8471 7249 2789 1459 Houston 89.3 4131 2845 250 85 Indianapolis 128.1 6730 5662 853 405 Jacksonville 61.1 1120 663 32 10 Kansas City 89.2 2376 1317 129 52 Miami 88.1 1935 473 110 38 Minnesota 70.8 1413 535 73 23 New England 243.6 8859 6825 3277 1985 New Orleans 155.4 7360 5089 1650 765 NY Giants 126.8 4608 1972 615 270 NY Jets 155.6 6393 2634 1002 522 Oakland 61.4 905 453 23 9 Philadelphia 185.9 8111 6134 2341 1234 Pittsburgh 142.1 7708 5109 1293 640 San Diego 171.9 8427 7847 1851 957 San Francisco 61.8 3066 2806 90 28 Seattle 43.6 1000 900 11 4 St. Louis 70.5 3708 3426 143 41 Tampa Bay 81.6 2174 869 136 49 Tennessee 57.1 1378 830 36 8 Washington 53.2 509 148 12 2
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How do I extract playoff odds from season wins
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