[Rich Boy]

Sometimes when a line moves against me, I almost dont care because I feel that its incorrect.

In most cases I try to look at my numbers and see why the market doesnt agree with me, but other times I feel so strongly about my estimate that I disregard a line move against me.

You guys ever feel that the market is wrong? Or is a line move against you always a reason to re-consider your estimation?

[Justin7]

The market is definitely wrong, especially in smaller sports. You need a lot of data to conclude that... if it is based on "feel", the market is probably right.

[Rich Boy]

The market is definitely wrong, especially in smaller sports. You need a lot of data to conclude that... if it is based on "feel", the market is probably right.

When lines move against me on prop bets, I usually dont worry about it.

But if it moves against me in a larger market (MLB totals, MLB team totals) then I will try and figure out where/if I went wrong.

But then I ask myself, how efficient are totals markets anyway? Obviously not as efficient as ML or spread markets (based on betting limits).

When should you value your estimation more than the markets?

[Justin7]

I would be careful in props. If the line moves against you there, why? If at a square shop (like Bodog or SIA) I wouldn't worry. If you bet props at Pinnacle or bookmaker, and it regularly moves against you, you are wrong.

Totals. The big 5 are pretty good. If you are opposing the market in MLB, NFL, NCAAF, NBA or NCAAB, you will probably lose.

If limits at post are no higher than 500 anywhere, it is very possible that the market is wrong.

[Pancho sanza]

I would be careful in props. If the line moves against you there, why? If at a square shop (like Bodog or SIA) I wouldn't worry. If you bet props at Pinnacle or bookmaker, and it regularly moves against you, you are wrong.

I don't know what props you're looking at but that is completely untrue re the props I play.

[u21c3f6]

... When should you value your estimation more than the markets?

When your record indicates that you are profitable in the subset of games where the line moves against you.

Joe.

[TomG]

When your record indicates that you are profitable in the subset of games where the line moves against you.

Joe.

This. Also note that if this is true, you should have a large enough bankroll relative to the particular market's limits to buy back any move you disagree with. In which case it's a good thing and you'll appreciate the opportunity to get down more at a favorable price.

[wantitall4moi]

moves are right and wrong. With a comprehensive database you see that. Despite a lot of guys claiming always beating the closing line will make it impossible to lose, data and results prove other wise.

The most important thing is to always get the best line on what you like. But generally when a line moves against you, it means you could have gotten a better price. So sometimes it is good to notice these things. While on spread bets it mioght not matter, but on Ml bets it will.

Betting a team -6 and having them close -3.5 and they win by 7 or more it doesnt really matter. Well it does but lets leave that for another debate. But betting a team -130, and having them close -118 is a huge difference. Even moreso if youre the type who bets the 130 to win a hundred and they lose. But betting them and them winning is still a 'loss' of 12 bux a hundred.

Now if youre talking about your opinion before the game starts then go with my original statement always get the best number on the side you like.

But if youre really looking to cash in you want to always have the 'market' disagree with you.

[JVP3122]

When lines move against me on prop bets, I usually dont worry about it.

On a similar note, does anyone know if and where historical odds data for total bases matchups can be found on the internets?

[durito]

total bases odds have been sharp since 7/20

[Jontheman]

Sometimes when a line moves against me, I almost dont care because I feel that its incorrect.

In most cases I try to look at my numbers and see why the market doesnt agree with me, but other times I feel so strongly about my estimate that I disregard a line move against me.

You guys ever feel that the market is wrong? Or is a line move against you always a reason to re-consider your estimation?

I'd say it's always a reason to re-consider. However sometimes after I've done that I still feel I'm right; my main two betting sports are not huge markets so the closing no. is not particularly efficient anyway. I rarely put down more though as there is always the possibility of undisclosed news moving the line as the volumes are relatively small.

Even where I have reconsidered I'm struggling to think of a time that I concluded that closing out the bet at the lower price was the most +EV course of action.