I was wonder if anyone saw the article about this stat in espn the magazine. the espn stats people claim it is the best predictive stat on a team scoring. i don't have the article in front of me, but it was essentially using the 30 as the new red zone since field goal kicker can make FG from there at a relative high percentage. a value drive would be one where the team started on the other side of the 50 meaning the offense was good enough to move the ball down the field as opposed to some turnover created by the defense. they also apply the stat to defenses.
it in the espn magazine. you maybe could find a digital copy somewhere like a torrent site or an insider can see the magazine on the website. i would d/l and post it here but would get banned or something.
"A value drive is simply any possession that begins on the offense's side of the field and reaches at least the opponent's 30-yard line."
" It rewards offenses for closing drives with TDs rather than field goals, and defenses for the reverse."
"To value drive, the order of those two plays doesn't matter. If an offense scores on a methodical 65-yard drive or a 73-yard bomb, it gets credit for it. Likewise, if a defense can't stop its opponent from marching down the field or from sprinting down the sideline for a quick score, it gets punished equally."
"...when we ran the numbers for every red zone opportunity and for every value drive opportunity since the 2007 season, it turned out that PPVD correlated more strongly with winning percentage than any red zone stat."
And as to it's value, I don't know. He seemed to judge it for I'm not big on the twominutewarning/footballoutsiders/others-I-forget approach because I've never seen them win for long. I'm honestly not convinced that any stat analysis or model can beat football, if for no reason other than that the season is too short, AND player performance too inter-dependent.
Also, I didn't see any measure of predictability. Just this: "it turned out that PPVD correlated more strongly with winning percentage than any red zone stat."
That's hardly indicative of a betting-useful stat. They'd find that scoring margin correlates even more strongly.
But I agree it's an improvement over the ridiculous red zone stat. I'm wondering if Fremeau will be including it anywhere on FO this year.
i was thinking it could be a useful tool, but you would need to have preseason statistical projections because by the time you would get enough data on the teams the season would be over like you mentioned.
i thought maybe it could be used in over/unders by using a number of average drives per game that start on the offenses side of the field, what percentage of them become value drives, and include the defense as well. i guess you would also need to know when a team starts the offense on other side of the field what percentage of time do they score and what amount of points.
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Points per value drive in football
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