[135steward]

I just read a study (http://web.subr.edu/fileadmin/files/...ing_Market.pdf) suggesting opening lines are more efficient than closing lines:

"The zθ-values in table I display a distinct pattern suggesting bookmakers assess win probabilities with greater precision than gamblers. If zθ > 0 then θ > π implying ε < 0 and p1Ν > p1 which occurs generally for the weak favorites displayed in the top half of table I. For strong favorites displayed in the bottom half of table I the tendency is for p1Ν < p1 . Thus, given balanced book pricing, p1Ν is biased somewhat toward the median

π-value suggesting that gamblers are less adept at assessing win probabilities than bookies." p.6
Do any books simply set a line, then live or die by what they believe? Surely, such books would hate winners.

[wantitall4moi]

not enough information. The guy assumes too much, or I didnt read it anyways.

According to his chart the -145/135 subset favorites the probability for them winning is set at .581. The results were .550. Which means they didnt win enough. What it looks like he assumes is that people bet lower priced favorites and pushed them to -145. meaning they overvalued them too much inthe first place,and the end result was a major difference.

But once could easily say/assume that bettors were taking dogs of +146 or more and betting them enough to push the line to -145 or close enough for him to put in than subset. In which case the bettors were more correct.

I didnt read everything that was written because it looks lie this was done over 20 years ago. But the chart doesnt give enough information or how the lines were ascertained. We assume they are closers and thus moved, but we dont know where they moved from.

If that is explained then I would have to look at it again.

[evo34]

Back in the mid-90s when people actually used Yahoo for email, this study may have had relevance.

[Justin7]

I don't see any cites later than 1994. This may have been correct then, but is not now. In general, closing lines are much more accurate than openers. This has been the case for at least the last 10 years in major sports.

[135steward]

It was an older study. But looking at a study from 2011 (attached), the tables indicate bookie lines are even more efficient. "Remarkably" efficient, according to the study. There simply isn't enough wiggle room, according to the tables, to beat the vig. Even the study sited in another thread indicates the difference in line efficiency is very small.

If you're beating the line, god bless you. But with variance being the beast it is, luck can help you as much as skill. Are any of you familiar with Forbes' DART system of stock picking? They threw darts at the S&P500 stock table. The stocks the hit have consistently beat the S&P500 for several years. And how about that deal where the market goes down when the AFC wins the Super Bowl, or something like that? As I recall, That was a 14 year run until a couple years ago. I could go on.

I picked stocks and options for years with a lot of luck. The savvy investors have a foolproof credo: "It works until it doesn't." My point is, if you have fun with it, do it. Maybe the money will follow. But don't take yourself too seriously.

[135steward]

Back in the mid-90s when people actually used Yahoo for email, this study may have had relevance.

smartass

[donjuan]

Read more, post less.

[135steward]

Read more, post less.

Says the guy with over 3000 posts. Practice what you preach, dong.

[tomcowley]

Jesus christ, I skimmed the pdf in post 5, what a ginormous pile of stupid fail. Who does that? Who approves it for publication?

[wiffle]

Says the guy with over 3000 posts. Practice what you preach, dong.

lol donjuan pwnz

[wiffle]

tom mccowley!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Inspirited]

where is the comparison between opening lines, closing lines and actual win probabilities?

[donjuan]

Says the guy with over 3000 posts. Practice what you preach, dong.

My comment is only intended for noobs with little to nothing to contribute and too lazy to use the search function. I am just getting into lifting. I don't go on weight lifting forums telling knowledgable, experienced lifters how I know more than them. If I'm curious about a topic I use the search function. 99% of the time there is a thread on it already. If I have further questions I ask them in that thread.

[donjuan]

lol donjuan pwnz

I would give you a shoutout in my blog but I don't have one.

[warriorfan707]

Says the guy with over 3000 posts. Practice what you preach, dong.

he's also been around since '07