1. #1
    elbciho's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-11
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    Using poisson to predict total Ks?

    Is using poisson distribution to predict o/u pitcher strikeouts OK? The 4 criterion listed in the book are over 20 trials, odds off occurrence are less than 10%, go up in increments of 1 and past distribution is the same. The only criteria which is not met is odds off occurrence, the average strikeout rate is around 18%. Does that rule out any way of successfully using poisson to price the prop or could it still be close enough that it would still work?

  2. #2
    TomG's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-29-07
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    drink our boy poogs milkshake

    Value of a strikeout in regard to prop betting

  3. #3
    escarabajo negro
    durito's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Our head moderator, author, and professional sports bettor Justin7 once made a video explaining why poisson isnīt a good idea for strikeout props. It was pretty worthless, but you may be able to find it.

  4. #4
    JVP3122's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    If it's not a rare event, which in this case it is not, then try using a binomial distribution instead of a Poisson distribution to determine the probability. No guarantee it will work, but it's worth a shot testing it I would think.

  5. #5
    elbciho's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-11
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    The way I have the model set up using binomial distributions won't work with out making a ton of calculations. I am going to take a sample of starting pitchers strikeout in each game started to find a standard deviation and then use the normal distribution in excel and see how that works.