[PackerBacker]

On when to hedge or not to hedge?

Thanks

[Juret]

no..

[PackerBacker]

What is the hedge bet is +EV on its own.

[Pancho sanza]

Yes, assuming you use kelly.

[illfuuptn]

"Hedge" if the hedge-side is now +ev. Hedge if you bet too much(according to kelly) on the first bet.

[wiffle]

Eg>ev

[Peregrine Stoop]

hedge when it's positive EG of course

[TomG]

as a general rule, if you aren't sure, never hedge. the ev you give up by making a bad hedge will usually be much bigger than the ev/eg gained from a proper hedge.

[That Foreign Guy]

Hedges never win. So you should always make a $1 hedge even at massive -EV to ensure you win your real bet.

[hornsrgrt]

what sport?
I am in Vegas for my 2nd week heding baseball (thanks to my local guy jacking up the lines).
We are taking all the dogs with him and taking all the chalk in Vegas.
It is very profitable (on avg we net 1k per day).
I also like to look for hedging bets with football games and got lucky last week when I had Philly +0.5 for 2nd half and Baltimore at pick for for 2nd half...score was 3-3 for second half. I tried it a few other times and lost so overall went 1-2 and probably netted $700.

[PackerBacker]

Thanks for the input guys, appreciate all the knowledge.

[wantitall4moi]

theory and reality never coexist.

If you want to be successful you always hedge when you can make a profit both ways. If you cant do that then you have to weigh all the known factors and decide.

The only people who dont hedge are the guys in it for the action or a big score (which they will eventually piss away anyway).

If you can make money regardless of who wins you take it. Free money is good money. The only draw back of 'natural' hedges is the lack of volume. As in youre have a chance to make $500 one way or a guarantee of $75 (plus initial bet cost) either way with a hedge. So some guys might think the risk is worth the reward. All depends on the goals you have. If the goal is to make money you hedge.

[Juret]

reevaluate after the line movement and do what gives you the most expected value. things have probably changed since the original bet. If you cant estimate the ev of hedging and not, then hedge.

[mebaran]

I heard someone post before that context plays a big role as well. If it's a "life-changing" amount of money, and you are somewhat risk averse, then, though it may not be +EV, it's certainly understandable to some degree.

[That Foreign Guy]

Yeah, if I was sweating the last leg of one of my chumpy 10 leg parlays I'd probably hedge it even at a bad price.

[Arilou]

My rules of thumb:
1) If you know which side of the bet is right and which is wrong (e.g. above your local is offering the good bet) bet the maximum on the good side, and hedge down to what you're willing to risk. Rule of thumb: Line with higher limits and less juice is usually the accurate one. Thus game lines > series prices, Vegas > local, etc.
2) If you don't know which side is right, and bets are both available, hedge fully if you can. If you can't, beware of betting more at the higher amount since higher limits tend to mean better lines, but if you have factors against that then go ahead and do it.
3) If you place a bet with no intention of hedging it, don't unless you actively like the other side now or get a soft line or what not.
4) If you place a bet with the intention of hedging it (you expect a future arbitrage), hedge every time!
5) TomG's rule: Only hedge when you're confident you want to. A marginal decision should always be not hedge; if it was so obvious you'd be calling it an aribtrage and not a hedge!