1. #1
    strixee
    I think, therefore I win
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    Join Date: 05-31-10
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    Edge calculation based on past wagers record

    Unfortunately nobody replied my question, so I decided to open a new thread.

    I'd like to calculate my edge based on my past wagers. The problem is I have placed them at various odds from like -150 to +1000. It seems to me that the simplest way is to normalize the
    odds by multiplying them by a coefficient indirectly dependent on the odds. And the calculation would be k= 1/(decimal_odds-1), so e.g. for 2.00 k=1, for 3.00 k=0.5, for 1.60 k=1.66
    If I'd be taking vig into consideration, then there should be some adjustment like k=0.95/(decimal_odds-1).
    In the case of quarter handicaps I'd further multiply the odds by 0.5 when the spread/ total hits the closest whole number and when whole number hcps will be hit, then I'll ignore them.
    So if in the end I'll get numbers like +540 (won), -460 (lost), my edge would be 8%, right?
    (540-460)/(540+460)=0.08
    Of course the above assumes all bets have equal to risk amount.

  2. #2
    Pancho sanza
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    Total amount won + stake - stake/stake

    This will give you an ROI

    Then break it down further by monelyline ranges, although I'm not sure why you would want that.

  3. #3
    xyz
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    I would compare your past wager against the closing line for those games, and compute your edge from the line you bet at and the no vig line of the closing lines.

  4. #4
    strixee
    I think, therefore I win
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    I would compare your past wager against the closing line for those games, and compute your edge from the line you bet at and the no vig line of the closing lines.
    I have to add that a lot of the bets are made in-play, so this method is of no use. The best way will probably be the one mentioned by Pancho sanza.

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