[TotallyTilt]

How does the VIG Matchbook takes impact what you need your win % to be to show a profit? In other words, assume that you're able to obtain +100 odds on a game you're positive has a 50% chance of winning. After Matchbook takes their 2% on your winnings, what % of these games would you need to win? What if they take 3%?

From an odds perspective, how much would you need to beat the closing line by (assuming the closing line is efficient) to overcome Matchbook's vig... +102 or +103 on a +100 line?


I appreciate any help on this.

[Ganchrow]

How does the VIG Matchbook takes impact what you need your win % to be to show a profit? In other words, assume that you're able to obtain +100 odds on a game you're positive has a 50% chance of winning. After Matchbook takes their 2% on your winnings, what % of these games would you need to win? What if they take 3%?

From an odds perspective, how much would you need to beat the closing line by (assuming the closing line is efficient) to overcome Matchbook's vig... +102 or +103 on a +100 line?


I appreciate any help on this.

Breakeven on a decimal line of D, given % commission on wins of c would be given by:

1 (c + (1 - c) * D)

So breakeven on a US line of:

• at 2% comm would be 1 (2% + 98% * ) ≈ 50.25% 50.51%
• at 2% comm would be 1 (2% + 98% * ) ≈ 52.63% 52.88%
• at 2% comm would be 1 (2% + 98% * ) ≈ 51.47% 51.72%
• at 2% comm would be 1 (2% + 98% * ) ≈ 49.03% 49.29%

[Justin7]

I didn't follow that Ganch...

Let Profit = Winnings - Losings.
Profit = 0 for breakeven.
Wp = win percentage
0 = wp (0.98) - (1 - wp)
0 = 0.98 (wp) -1 + wp
1.98 wp = 1
wp = 1/1.98, or about 50.5%

Hmmm. that doesn't look right either. I'll take another look after I'm caffeinated
.

[TotallyTilt]

Breakeven on a decimal line of D, given % commission on wins of c would be given by:

1 (c + (1 - c) * D)

So breakeven on a US line of:

• at 2% comm would be 1 (2% + 98% * ) ≈ 50.25% 50.51%
• at 2% comm would be 1 (2% + 98% * ) ≈ 52.63% 52.88%
• at 2% comm would be 1 (2% + 98% * ) ≈ 51.47% 51.72%
• at 2% comm would be 1 (2% + 98% * ) ≈ 49.03% 49.29%

Ok, so to check this:

Let's say I bet $1 10,000 times at 2% (2 cents) commission.

I win 5025 times or $5,025 minus commission. Commission is 5025 * .02 or $100.50. So, I win $4924.50.

I lose $1 4975 times or -$4975.

So, my net would be -$51.50 unless I'm doing something wrong.

[Ganchrow]

I just corrected the above arithmetic to reflect 2% comms (the values were given for 1% comms).

You can also use the e2s() function in my VBA Sportsbetting Template for Excel to painlessly convert between exchange and regular odds.

[TotallyTilt]

Great, thanks for your help.