1. 11-17-08 02:13 PM #1
    tubesocks
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    Capitalizing on Inefficient Lines?

    If a local has football lines that are occasionally 1-3 points higher than the lines of pinnacle/matchbook, what is the best method to regularly capitalize on this?

    Thanks for any help and suggestions!
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  2. 11-17-08 04:24 PM #2
    unit1884
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    Take Pinny NFL lines to be the sharpest lines available, and bet accordingly.

    Ex. If Pinny has

    CLE@BUF
    Over 40 +100
    Under 40 -110

    And your Book has O/U 43, then you bet the under (given your book has standard -110 juice on both sides)
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  3. 11-17-08 04:31 PM #3
    durito
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    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx
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  4. 11-17-08 04:35 PM #4
    tubesocks
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    Just to clarify, the difference in lines is for the game, not the total.

    For example tonight he has Cle +6 -110, and it is +5 +102 at Pinnacle.
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  5. 11-17-08 04:43 PM #5
    durito
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    that's still a -ev play.

    play around with the calculator
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  6. 11-19-08 09:35 AM #6
    tubesocks
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx
    I am not sure that I am fully understanding this...or I could just be inputting the data incorrectly.

    Would it be best to play a greater # of units based on the EV?

    Here are the lines he has vs pinnacle for NCAA this week that are over 1 point:

    Ole Miss +6 -110 vs Ole Miss +3.5-105
    AFA +20 -110 vs. AFA +18 -12
    Syracue +21 -110 vs. Cuse +20 -106
    Idaho +24 -110 vs Idaho +23 -103
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  7. 11-20-08 07:29 AM #7
    rm18
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    no blind edge in any of those other than Ole Miss
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  8. 11-20-08 02:38 PM #8
    Ganchrow
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    Quote Originally Posted by tubesocks View Post
    I am not sure that I am fully understanding this...or I could just be inputting the data incorrectly.

    Would it be best to play a greater # of units based on the EV?

    Here are the lines he has vs pinnacle for NCAA this week that are over 1 point:

    Ole Miss +6 -110 vs Ole Miss +3.5-105
    AFA +20 -110 vs. AFA +18 -12
    Syracue +21 -110 vs. Cuse +20 -106
    Idaho +24 -110 vs Idaho +23 -103
    The idea is that Half Point Calculator provides you an estimate if the EV on each bet but is says nothing about the proper risk allocation of funds.

    To determine how much to bet on each of a set of events with varying edges and odds you might look to the Kelly Calculator or if you were feeling more adventurous, to the generic kelly spreadsheet I just posted here.
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