[jgilmartin]

OP, I think you might benefit from reading Justin's book:
http://store.sportsbookreview.com/products/300-CONQUERING-RISK
http://www.amazon.com/Conquering-Ris...dp/1450723004/

He has a section on props; start with props and work your way up from there.

[Boltafied]

to answer what value or edge is, in sportsbetting is not an exact science. you might say you found value based on your research/database or whatever while someone else, equally successful, can be on the opposite side based on their findings or opinion. for example, if your research said stl to win last night.............you have 75 games in your database with several criteria matching exactly the ones in the phi @ stl game......and these factors indicated stl win.......lets say you've won 50 of these 75 games in the past....then you have created value for yourself betting stl. a suggestion is to build up a database with games selected based on exact same criteria, record the result of the games.....thereafter analyze the data, trying to find combinations of factors leading up to a certain outcome.

Actually the system I'm trying to build. Trends are difficult to predict though, but historical numbers are better to me than flipping a coin (like it seems some do). Good post!

[mycon]

Is not your "edge" a 50/50 shot in the dark? Many believe the Cardinals @+142 had an edge. I would also say many people thought the Phillies @-152 had and edge too. Where do they come up with that decision? It took me 3 seconds of common sense to see the Cardinals were the "right" side.

If I used the same logic and ran it through whatever filters I have in my mind for every game everyday, I should grind out a profit? Very unlikely because I really can't be sure what the right side is. How do you translate relative strength of the teams and many other relative factors into an estimated moneyline? It is like speculating on a speculation using estimates....and the bankroll is your result.

There is no objective way to determine if a given line was value. What really tells the story is the overall balance after more than 1,000 bets though. If you're in profit then you must have picked value mostly.

Other than that heed the advice that has been given to you in this thread. It's invaluable insight.

[constrictor]

well for me the goal is not just profitable but huge profits. i need very high winning %-- like 90%.

[chunk]

You haven't really acknowledged the posts about doing really hard work...so I will just assume you want to lose.
You are never going to beat 52.38% on spreads by guessing on 'filters in your mind'.
Period.

Valid post.

[chunk]

And as to how do you quantify edge- there's formulas for that.
And as to how do you know if your edge is real- you back test against out of set data. Or test going forward without betting.
and if you can't go a year without betting when you KNOW you don't have an edge, then you will lose forever because you are a compulsive gambler.

That's some sound advice.

B.S. post

[bigballer891]

degenerate gamblers always lose in the end, i have a friend who will bet on will there be a hit in the inning just for the rush. These guys spend 3 minutes of research before they place there bet

[constrictor]

[quote=That Foreign Guy;10537043]That's what she said



only hookers gabble while f*kking

[CrimsonQueen]

B.S. post

Would love to know how you qualify this as a B.S. post.

1. You need an edge, and if you can't calculate your edge, how do you know you have one? How do you know what size bet you should make? Guess you don't know about Gambler's Ruin.

2. As to know if a model you made has an edge and that that edge is true (and not just victim of a small sample size, even of say, 40 bets, where people would start to think it can't be chance that it went 25-15, but they take no time to find out their Z score.) you need to back test the model, or forward test it without betting it.

3. If you can't / won't go for a period of time making no bets because you can't calculate your edge / you don't even know if you have an edge, then you're not trying to win... you're just trying to gamble. Which is fine if that's what you want to accomplish, but that's not what the OP asked.

[chunk]

Would love to know how you qualify this as a B.S. post.

1. You need an edge, and if you can't calculate your edge, how do you know you have one? How do you know what size bet you should make? Guess you don't know about Gambler's Ruin.

2. As to know if a model you made has an edge and that that edge is true (and not just victim of a small sample size, even of say, 40 bets, where people would start to think it can't be chance that it went 25-15, but they take no time to find out their Z score.) you need to back test the model, or forward test it without betting it.

3. If you can't / won't go for a period of time making no bets because you can't calculate your edge / you don't even know if you have an edge, then you're not trying to win... you're just trying to gamble. Which is fine if that's what you want to accomplish, but that's not what the OP asked.

Sorry mate. It was a little harsh in the wee hours of the morning.

[Gemoka]

OP,

You may have learned stuff, but nothing that applies to actually making money. I am not sure what your goal is with this thread, if its a rant, then PT is down the street............if you are actually looking to learn something, then reading this forum as well as asking for other places to look to learn would be a better approach.

Take a look at this link.............if you can't understand and/or get yourself to believe the contents of this, then i suggest you forget trying to win at sportsbetting and just bet what you can afford to lose.

http://analyticalsports.blogspot.com...-who-wins.html

he sounds a bit bitter on his blog

[ScreaminPain]

What model did you use?

I always here people say things like this but I always wonder if their "model" is just them taking a wild guess at what they think the line should be.

Kind of an interesting thread.....
I find it amusing how some people want to actually help while others become demeaning.
Anyway, as for a model, I'm not sure how others "model", but without some sort of factual method how would one define a positive edge? Doesn't it seem logical that if one can determine an outcome with a degree (percentage) of certainty that this would then remove the contest from "gambling" to investing?

My model contains just over 30 pages of data.....all mined from the internet and updated daily using Excel. I'm not a programmer and cannot write code although I am progressing towards that goal. This data is then compiled into basically three sets of information. One set is TEAM STATS such as record, H/A record, record vs L & R handers, and other such info. Another set of data is PITCHER data. This set has all the information about todays starters and how they fair against the competition. It also has pitcher data based upon yearly data, monthly and last 3 game stats as well as bullpen stats. The last set of data is TEAM BATTING stats compiled into columns with headings that include H/A avg's, vs L/R handed pitchers, current and 7 day avg's.

There's more, but I think you get the point. Now, using sabermetrics, log5 and pythagorean calculations, I can compile this data into meaningful stats that has a factual base and then determine a value or line for each game.

Lets say I determine by use of this model, that team "A" has a 55% probability of winning today. However the line is -180. If I bet this scenario over and over, I'll eventulally lose all my money. I simply cannot pay more for a game than its worth, but without a workable model, I'm not sure how I would be able to determine this.

Since May 18 there have been 81 games in which this has occured: One team's pitcher has a FIP rating above his opponent by 1 or more. His overall ranking exceeded his opponent and his ERA in the last 3 games was better than his opponent. The team's batting avg exceed their opponent and in the last 7 games their avg was better than their season avg. In addition, my computed game score showed that team to win by an amount exceeding .51 runs. This scenario wins at a rate of 67%, so whenever this occurs and the line permits, I bet it.

A lot can be learned by compiling a database. DO IT! I know I'm getting a little long-winded, but finally let me say that compiling data and a workable formula for forcasting is benefical and worth the time spent if you have any inclination to make money at this.

Good luck on your action...

[wiffle]

he sounds a bit bitter on his blog

yup, definitely nothing worth reading there

[Melloweitsj]

he sounds a bit bitter on his blog

Knowledge are still to be had. Recommended reading for everyone aspiring to become +EV sports bettors.