1. 10-22-08 09:56 AM #1
    Justin7
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    Credit Wagering math problem

    Assume you are a stiff that won't pay them.
    You have to make 30 bets at -110, $100 each. Don't worry if you "overshoot" your credit line. Assume you're an average player, have a 50/50 chance to win any bet.

    What % of the time will you be up after rollover is met?

    If you are up, what is your average win?
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  2. 10-22-08 09:58 AM #2
    gm2022
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    all books win period, but didnt think about it like that Justin!
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  3. 10-22-08 10:21 AM #3
    Sinister Cat
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    Just quickly using the binomdist function in excel... expect to win about 42.8% of the time (need to win 16+ to make money), and given that you are up, your expected win amount is ~$149. I might have messed this up...
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  4. 10-22-08 10:58 AM #4
    nosniboR11
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    nice stats there gm2022
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  5. 10-22-08 11:05 AM #5
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinister Cat View Post
    Just quickly using the binomdist function in excel... expect to win about 42.8% of the time (need to win 16+ to make money), and given that you are up, your expected win amount is ~$149. I might have messed this up...
    So the expected loss per stiff is 0.42 * 149 - a little over $60.

    Earlier, I said their business model wouldn't work because of stiffs. With this rule-set, I no longer think that. This is not an endorsement of CW - just a retraction from earlier.
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  6. 11-15-08 01:28 AM #6
    betplom
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    up
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  7. 11-15-08 01:31 AM #7
    Kingctb27
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    What about those who just quit gambling there when they are down 399?
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  8. 11-15-08 01:35 AM #8
    MickChunky
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    King, they state you have to bet $100 per month to have an active account. I believe they will try to collect if you don't stay active, even under -400.
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  9. 11-15-08 01:37 AM #9
    Kingctb27
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickChunky View Post
    King, they state you have to bet $100 per month to have an active account. I believe they will try to collect if you don't stay active, even under -400.
    Possible I guess, but I find it hard to believe that someone would pay them money that they didn't actually lose. I def. wouldn't.
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  10. 11-15-08 08:17 AM #10
    Peep
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    Apart from that, they claim their average cost of aquistion of a active account is $27, as opposed to over $500 for a traditional book.
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  11. 01-27-09 02:28 AM #11
    Slim
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    They have some math problems because my wagers haven't been graded yet.
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  12. 01-27-09 07:18 AM #12
    Arilou
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    Justin, the expected loss per stiff is much higher than that for obvious reasons: You're not correctly simulating stiff behavior. I can do a lot better (as a stiff) than this, if I choose to.
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  13. 01-27-09 12:22 PM #13
    pico
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    stiffs can buy ids at bulk and use various proxy. ever thought about that?
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  14. 01-29-09 11:22 AM #14
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by pico View Post
    stiffs can buy ids at bulk and use various proxy. ever thought about that?
    If I'm organized enough to have IDs and proxies at my disposal, there are a lot better uses of time than jerking around with a 1k line of credit and $100 max bets.
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  15. 01-29-09 11:48 AM #15
    AK
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    Remember Won or lossed money should not be converted unless the player gets paid or pays.. Imaginary lossed money should not actually infect there percentage as in real money since.

    They will succeed my problem is, who is 100% behind them out of Toronto and how much backing is Phil in this mix.
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