1. 05-21-11 08:59 AM #1
    ABanks
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    Question About Kelly Criterion and Flat Betting

    I watched Justin's video explaining Kelly Criterion and how it applies to sports betting but I can't seem to figure out how to apply it to what I am doing. If I am planning on betting an entire MLB season and I know I am going to make 500 bets and that my return on investment/return on risk/edge (however you want to define it) is going to be 2% for the entire season, how do I figure out how much each bet should be if I plan on making each bet the same size and my bankroll is say 30,000 dollars?

    How would I use the Kelly formula to figure out my optimal bet size? I was running into problems trying to plug in the win probability and payout on bet, among other things. (I don't have great math abilities) I would like to be able to have a formula so I could plug in different bankroll amounts and r.o.i. percentages and see what the optimal bet sizes would be for them.

    If anyone who understands Kelly and is good with math could help me out with this it would be much appreciated.
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  2. 05-21-11 09:27 AM #2
    tukkk
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    optimal wager = edge/(decimal odds-1)
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  3. 05-21-11 11:27 AM #3
    blanda
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    Kelly Kelly is the best Kelly...
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  4. 05-21-11 12:54 PM #4
    LT Profits
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    Just bet TO WIN 2% of your bankroll every play.
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  5. 05-21-11 01:42 PM #5
    ABanks
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    Oh ok, thanks.
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  6. 05-21-11 05:03 PM #6
    Sawyer
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    Flat is better then Kelly.

    Kelly Kamikaze Criterion sucks.
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  7. 05-21-11 06:20 PM #7
    jgilmartin
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    Have you tried this?
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/

    If you read the text below the calculator, it explains how it all works pretty well, IMO.

    If you can accurately determine your edge, Kelly is absolutely, positively the optimal method.
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  8. 05-22-11 05:41 PM #8
    ABanks
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    Thanks, I will check it out.
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  9. 05-22-11 07:53 PM #9
    wiffle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Flat is better then Kelly.

    Kelly Kamikaze Criterion sucks.

    lollercoaster
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  10. 05-22-11 09:15 PM #10
    Thremp
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Flat is better then Kelly. Kelly Kamikaze Criterion sucks.
    This has been proven an idiotic comment time and time again.
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  11. 05-23-11 05:22 AM #11
    That Foreign Guy
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    For most of the people that make that kind of statement flat betting 0 is better than betting Kelly on their perceived edge.
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  12. 05-23-11 10:34 AM #12
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Flat is better then Kelly.

    Kelly Kamikaze Criterion sucks.
    You have been a "pro" for three years and your bankroll is under 30k.
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  13. 05-23-11 11:56 PM #13
    byronbb
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    use this:
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...tml#post256487

    it gives you a bunch of excel functions useful for sportsbetting. if you can't get it to work then do something else with your time.
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  14. 05-29-11 12:51 AM #14
    sharpcircle
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    Bet kelly if you know your edge, flat bet because you most likely don't
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  15. 05-31-11 03:12 AM #15
    maxvalue1
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    key words...know your edge
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  16. 05-31-11 04:36 AM #16
    Ruifgalmeida
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    Quote Originally Posted by sharpcircle View Post
    Bet kelly if you know your edge, flat bet because you most likely don't
    The best post in this thread.
    Not everybody can calculate their edge( like myself) ,in this case flat betting will work a lot better
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  17. 05-31-11 11:59 AM #17
    tukkk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ruifgalmeida View Post
    The best post in this thread.
    Not everybody can calculate their edge( like myself) ,in this case flat betting will work a lot better
    Improving to the level, where you can calculate your edge, will work a lot better
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  18. 05-31-11 12:34 PM #18
    Pancho sanza
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    If your grasp on what your edge is so poor that you have to resort to flat betting, there's a good chance you don't even have an edge.
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  19. 06-01-11 08:59 PM #19
    maxvalue1
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    do you have a link to Justin's video explaining Kelly Criterion ?
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