Originally Posted by
SparJMU
All right so I just went back and analyzed the same data set, this time using a 4.5 point teaser. The results were better, but still not good enough to get me at +EV if the teaser is a -110 wager. I am under the impression that I am looking for teaser legs that will hit at 73%, or in a small sample size, teaser legs that will hit at 23% points higher than the ATS results in that sample. I found three very specific subsets that got me to a 22% - 23% differential between a straight bet and a teaser.
Home Teams -9.
203 Games. 50% ATS. 72% Teaser.
Home Teams +3.5
158 Games. 53% ATS. 76% Teaser.
Home Teams +4.5
136 Games. 46% ATS. 69% Teaser.
These were only a few hundred games though, so I am not sure its really reliable. For example, neither Home -8.5 or Home -9.5 was high enough. Neither was Home +3, +4, or +5.
So my conclusion at this point is that the 4.5 point teaser is definitely a better option if you can get it at -110, however it's still not a strong enough.